zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 28, 2016 9:25 AM
The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.
Perhaps the most important geopolitical event with material consequences for global markets, will be the OPEC meeting on Wednesday, when the cartel is expected to announce production cuts.
While doubts have crept up that OPEC can swing a deal, Bank of America and others, is confident that OPEC will go with a 500 thousand b/d or 1 million b/d supply cut announcement. Should OPEC just deliver a half a million barrel deal, the banks sees prices staying around the current levels. For prices to firmly break over $50/bbl, OPEC would have to deliver a 1 mn b/d cut announcement. If the cut comes with firm quotas and a tight control mechanism, WTI prices could average $59/bbl. A looser agreement that does not incorporate detailed country quotas would probably shave $5 off this number.
The most consequential event for the US economy will be this Friday’s payrolls report, the last one before the Fed’s December decision which the market is now certain will be a rate hike.
Main global events broken down by day, courtesy of DB:
In Europe we’ll get the latest M3 money supply data for the Euro along with the latest OECD economic outlook while in the US the sole release is the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey. Tuesday kicks off early in Japan with the latest jobless rate, retail sales and household spending data. Closer to home we’ll get Q3 GDP in France, Germany CPI for November, UK money and credit aggregates data and also the latest confidence indicators for the Euro area.
In the US tomorrow all eyes are on the second revision to Q3 GDP while the November consumer confidence print is also due out, along with the latest S&P/Case-Shiller house price index.
We start in Japan again on Wednesday where the latest industrial production data is due, along with housing starts data. China will also release the MNI consumer sentiment reading while the UK will release its latest consumer confidence print. During the European session we’ll get the latest CPI print out of France and also the Euro area, along with unemployment data in Germany. There’s important data in the US on Wednesday too with the ADP employment change print, personal income and spending reports for October and also the PCE core and deflator readings for last month too. Pending home sales data and the Chicago PMI will also be released followed by the Fed’s Beige Book in the evening.
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