The latest ABC / Washington Post poll shows a dead heat in the 2016 presidential race with just 6 days left until election day. The tie comes despite a massive plunge in Hillary’s “trustworthiness” proving that her supporters are blindly loyal and/or ABC’s polling data is simply wrong. That said, ABC points out that Clinton leads among those who say they’ve already voted by a margin of 54-41%…though we suspect a lot of that 54% would like to have their vote back after the latest FBI revelations.
On the particulars, the latest poll was fully conducted after the latest FBI revelations and included an 8-point sampling gap in favor of democrats.
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 28-31, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,182 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
ABC also points out that, for the first time of this election cycle, voters see Trump as more “honest and trustworthy” than Hillary by an 8-point margin. Hillary’s overall trustworthiness metric has dropped 10 points since August with only 38% of likely voters saying she’s trustworthy as of October 31st. Perhaps even more staggering is that she lost 14 points among independents in being seen as more honest than Trump, and 13 points among moderates.
Hillary Clinton trails Donald Trump for the first time this campaign in who’s seen as more honest and trustworthy, a sign of further possible fallout from renewed FBI scrutiny of Clinton-related emails. A steady six in 10 likely voters disapprove of how she’s responded to the issue.
The race is close because assessments of honesty and trustworthiness are far from voters’ only concerns. Earlier tracking results, for instance, found Clinton much more likely to be seen as qualified to serve as president, another key candidate attribute.
Trump’s lead in honesty and trustworthiness raises the question of whether Clinton has been damaged by Comey’s announcement last Friday that the FBI was investigating additional emails that passed through her private server. Vote preferences have not changed significantly pre- and post-Comey, suggesting the impact, if present, is a subtle one, potentially more apt to influence turnout than vote choices directly.
Compared to early September results, Clinton has lost 14 points among independents in being seen as more honest than Trump, and 13 points among moderates — two groups less firmly anchored by partisan or ideological preferences. That said, she’s also lost 10 points among Democrats on this measure.
Meanwhile, the latest LA Times tracking poll shows a much more substantial reaction among voters to Hillary’s latest FBI investigation with Trump surging to a 5-point lead.
All of this proves, once again, that pollsters really have no idea what is going to happen on election day.