Profile image
By silveristhenew (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:

Macroeconomics and Psychology

Sunday, February 26, 2017 8:28
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

B4INREMOTE-aHR0cHM6Ly8zLmJwLmJsb2dzcG90LmNvbS8teE9adHd5VGxjSncvV0xHY1kzUlZkLUkvQUFBQUFBQUFYU0Evelp1UzduY2VLUjRGNEFLOXFsRWplWjBWYUVfcktXNTdBQ0xjQi9zNDAwL3NjYXJlLmpwZw== / by Marc Chandler / February 26, 2017

There is a broad consensus around the macroeconomic picture.  The headwinds slowing the US economy in H1 16 have eased, and above trend growth in H2 16 appears to be carrying into 2017.  Q4 16 GDP is expected to be revised to 2.1% up from 1.8%.  Many economists appear to accept that a good part, though not all, of the decline in the estimated trend growth in the US, is a function of demographic considerations.
Price pressures are gradually increasing, though the Fed’s preferred and targeted measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator is likely to have remained at 1.7% in January, the base effect warns of topside risk in the coming months.   Meanwhile, the labor market continues to improve.  The four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims fell to a new cyclical low the same week the BLS conducted the survey for non-farm payrolls, which will be released on March 10.
The Federal Reserve raised rates once in 2015 and once in 2016.  This year will be different.  The shift in opinion is not so much in the increase of the likelihood of a March increase or June increase, but in a move in May.  As we have noted, the advantage May is that it would be part of the normalization process when every meeting must be live.  Up until now,  there was a general recognition that Fed action would take place at the quarterly meeting that had the economic forecast updates and was followed by a press conference.


The post Macroeconomics and Psychology appeared first on Silver For The People.


We encourage you to Share our Reports, Analyses, Breaking News and Videos. Simply Click your Favorite Social Media Button and Share.

Report abuse


Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories



Top Global


Top Alternative




Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.