news.goldseek.com / By Gordon T Long / 12 March 2017
It is important to anticipate whether Stagflation is stalking because the yield curve will start pricing it in which will place equity yields, earnings and PE growth multiples at risk.
We believe there are clear signs of stagflation already occurring and according to the recent Global Fund Manger Survey many already believe, if we don’t have elevated Inflation and an emerging period of Stagflation, we can soon expect it!
What is particularly critical to the equities markets is how the yield curve will react differently regarding whether it anticipates increasing Inflation through Reflation or Stagflation. If it views reflation the yield curve will shift up but also steepen as long-term yields increase faster than short term yields. If it sees stagflation because the drivers for inflation also impede economic growth, then the yield curve also shifts upward but instead can be expected to flatten. The longer-term yields rise slower than the short term yields.
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