The Fed jawboning has gone well… too well. Dudley, Harker, Kaplan, Williams, and Brainard have managed to push the market-implied probability of a March rate hike from around 20% to 90% in a week. The Fed is now cornered…
(we do note that Bloomberg’s WIRP function uses midpoints and is likely overvaluing the probability but the trend is unmistakable)
What happens to Fed credibility if they do not hike rate now?