What the Headlines Got Wrong about Retail Sales

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter • Oct 14, 2017

No, our American consumers didn’t suddenly perform a  miracle.

As part of the data dump on Friday, the Commerce Department released its estimates for retail sales for September. If you just looked at the headlines, you’d get the impression that our American consumers suddenly had gone out to splurge, fired up by two powerful, destructive, and deadly hurricanes:

“U.S. retail sales surge, driven by autos and gasoline purchases”: Reuters

“Retail sales in September surge most in 2 years”: Los Angeles Times

“Storms Surge and US Retail Sales Surge; Most in 2 ½ Years”: New York Times:

“U.S. Retail Sales Rose 1.6% in September: Strong car sales and higher gasoline prices power largest one-month increase since March 2015”: Wall Street Journal

“U.S. Retail Sales Rise Most Since 2015 on Storm-Related Lift”: Bloomberg News

So US consumers performed one their infamous last-minute miracles and suddenly got on the internet and drove to the mall and to auto dealers and splurged? The headlines pointed at the hurricanes and replacement demand, but this is what you get into when the headlines draw big conclusions from seasonally adjusted month-to-month data that is trying to estimate a very seasonal and volatile reality.

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