Bitcoin: An Unknowable Bubble?
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 22, 2017 9:10 AM
“Whatever [Bitcoin] is, I missed it… It looks and smells like all the bubbles I have seen throughout history.” – billionaire investor Jim Rogers
Authored by Constantin Gurdgiev via True Economics blog,
There is a much-discussed in the crypto-sphere chart making rounds these days, plotting Bitcoin price dynamics against the historical bubbles of the past:
The chart is striking. Albeit simplistic. See Note 1 below for a technical argument on the chart timing.
On price dynamics alone, Bitcoin looks like a sure bubble – a disaster waiting to happen. But Bitcoin dynamics are basically not suited for any empirical analysis of any significant accuracy.
As noted by some commentators, Bitcoin had numerous 80-90% and larger drawdowns in the past (given its immense volatility). It keeps coming back from these. Some claim this to be the evidence that Bitcoin it not a bubble. Which is neither here nor there: bubbles are generated by exuberant expectations of investors, not by actual parameters of price processes. Causality does not flow from dynamics to bubbles, but the other way around. So to identify a bubble, one needs to identify exuberance. See Note 2 below for more on 80% drawdowns.
The post Bitcoin: An Unknowable Bubble? appeared first on Silver For The People.
Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2017/11/22/bitcoin-an-unknowable-bubble/
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