Who Is Lying?

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

It was a good week to be bullish and the buying was ferocious and on the surface it appears that bulls won a major victory and bears look to have flailed again. Correction over. New highs on Nasdaq with $SPX recapturing all key moving averages including the 50MA, the 21MA, the weekly 5EMA and all is looking rosy again. Next week bullish OPEX, a sheepishly dovish Fed again the week after and then mark-ups for the month and quarter end. One can firmly smell the standard bullish seasonal script.

Or is it all a big lie? And if so, who is lying? After all, nothing is more ferocious than bear market rallies. Bear market are you nuts? Just look at $AMZN. To the moon Alice, to the moon.

Let’s have a look at the larger picture shall we?

First off, was the bullish outlook this week a surprise? No, it wasn’t if you paid attention to the signals and charts.

Larger market readings were still very oversold at the beginning of the week and I highlighted an example of this on twitter on Monday:

If you’re still surprised by today’s ramp, don’t be…. pic.twitter.com/DEX9sYakYE

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 5, 2018

These readings actually were consistent with major recent lows and may well be this time too, but it’s not that simple from what I’m seeing, but I’ll get to that in a minute.

But chart structures told us to be bullish, after all we saw very specific bullish structures as I outlined in Fog Monster:

“…if you want to be bullish here you can envision a series of inverses to play something like this”: