Mtechtips MCX-SX USDINR INTRADAY trading analysis 19-10-2016
MTECHTIPS The greenback declined slightly after a core US inflation gauge rose less than expected in September, reducing bets of a possible rate hike in December.On the economic front, US Labour Department released a report showing the consumer prices rose in the month of September and came in line with economists’ expectations.The annual rate of consumer price inflation accelerated to 1.5% in September from 1.1%, while the core rate slowed to 2.2% from 2.3% in August.Meanwhile, investors await the release of Fed’s latest beige book, a review of regional economic conditions, due later Wednesday.China’s gross domestic product expanded 6.7 percent on year in the third quarter of 2016, reported the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. The figures came in line with expectations and remained unchanged from the second quarter reading.On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP in the world’s second largets economy climbed 1.8 percent – also unchanged and matching forecasts.Meanwhile, the industrial production gained an annual 6.1 percent in September – lower than the analysts’ forecasts for 6.4 percent rise and down from 6.3 percent in August, said the NBS.Retail sales in China climbed 10.7 percent on year, matching forecasts and up from 10.6 percent in August.Also, the Reserve Bank of India released its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes for its fourth bi-monthly policy on Tuesday.India needs to step up its vigil around the upturn in inflation in the last quarter of the current fiscal year ending Mar 31, 2017, though the stance of the members remains accommodative indicating at least one more rate cut, the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on Oct 3-4 showed Tuesday.”Inflation outcomes in Q4 will have to be carefully and continuously monitored as upside risks, albeit lower now than before, persist,” Patel said in the MPC meeting.USDINR retraced more than 0.20% and settled at 66.79 compared to previous day close of 66.9525 levels. Since 3 Oct 2016 USDINR saw to struggle to break its strong resistance 67.25 on closing basis which yet creating probability for downside consolidation towards 66.90-66.75. On the other hand, closing above 67.25 only could open the door for upside move 67.45-67.65.Sell around 66.85-66.95. Target 66.60 with immediate Stop loss above 67.08.