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Housing Starts Surge.

Thursday, November 17, 2016 8:49
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Consumer Price Index (October 2016)

– CPI month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.3%
– CPI year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.5%
– CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%
– CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +2.1%. Previous was +2.2%

Housing Starts (October 2016)

– Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,323,000. Previous was 1,054,000
– Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,229,000. Previous was 1,225,000.

This is an enormous jump and included a 10.8% increase in single-family starts. This is the largest jump since 1982 and the highest level since August 2007. Some of this is weather
related run-over from a weak September.

Jobless Claims (week ended 11/12/2016)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 235,000. Previous was 254,000
– New Claims unadjusted, totaled 225,366 a decrease of 33,234 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 253,500. Previous was 259,750

This is the lowest level since 1973. Some of what we are seeing may be due to new Federal regulations regarding mandated overtime. These kick-in December 1. The effect could be more
jobs, more people working 2 jobs and people working fewer hours at any one job. In the last BLS Employment Situation report which counts jibs not people working we saw a increase in jobs
but an even larger increase in people working more than 1 job. This may continue for several months.

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (November 2016)

– General Business Conditions Index 7.6. Previous was 9.7

E-Commerce Retail Sales (3rdQ2016)

– E-Sales quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +4.0 %. Previous was 4.7%


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