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Modestly Positive Fundamentals.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 9:02
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Retail Sales (October 2016)

– Retail Sales month/month +0.8%. Previous was +1.0%
– Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.7%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.5%

This is the heart of GDP and shows a better 4thQ.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (November 2016)

– General Business Conditions Index +1.5. Previous was -6.8

This is from a survey of manufacturers in N.Y. State and is produced by the N.Y. Federal Reserve Bank.

Import and Export Prices (October 2016)

– Import Prices month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.2%
– Export Prices month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.3%
– Import Prices year/year -0.2%. Previous was -1.1%
– Export Prices year/year -1.1%. Previous was -1.5%

While, on the surface, these number are indicative of healthy world economy the increases are in oil and food and with those volatile components removed import/export prices are actually
-0.2%. Let’s call this inconclusive.

Redbook (week ended 11/12/2016)

– Store Sales year/year +0.9%. Previous was +0.7%

Business Inventories (September 2016)

– Inventories month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.2%

This is a GDP component and is rather flat.


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