Warnings

This week, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu flew to Russia in an attempt to dissuade Putin from selling Syria the S-300, a long range surface-to-air missile system.

While Netanyahu was en route, Moscow leaked that the missiles had already been delivered. During a three hour meeting with Netanyahu, Putin went further, warning him against future Israeli strikes against Syria. Israel has launched several targeted attacks against Syria in the past few months (including two strikes on May 3 and May 5).

The following day, Israel made an open warning that should Assad retaliate against future Israeli strikes, he will be “brought down.”

Thus far, Syria has not retaliated militarily against any of Israeli strikes, but they have put Assad in a precarious position. He has been weakened by anti-regime rebels and so pulling Israel directly into his ongoing domestic conflict could spell disaster for his regime. Of course not responding makes him look weak at home, something that can be deadly to a strongman dictator attempting to use force to quell a popular movement.

The S-300 offers Assad some leverage. Russia claims that Syria already knows how to use the advanced missile system. Should Damascus choose to successfully shoot down an IAF plane in the coming weeks or months, war in the region will seem likely.

But Israel is not warning against defensive maneuvers, they are warning against retaliations.

On Tuesday, Russia warned Israel against future airstrikes. On Wednesday, Israel warned Syria against retaliations to future airstrikes. So what happened on Thursday?

On Thursday, Russia added five warships to its Mediterranean Fleet with indications that nuclear subs may follow. This is the first time that Russia’s Pacific Fleet has entered the Mediterranean since the end of the Cold War. The fleet is scheduled to make a port call in Limassol, Cyprus. The distance from this Cypriot port to Haifa, a major city in Northern Israel, is about 170 miles. For context, that is shorter than the distance between Washington, DC and Manhattan.

From fighting wars with Soviet proxies throughout the Cold War to engaging in actual aerial battles with Soviet pilots, Israel has never shied away from picking fights with Moscow. But to so wantonly disregard threats from Russia in such an immediate and public way in a post-Cold War world seems surprising, even by Israeli standards. And should a Russian nuclear sub soon make its way into the Mediterranean, Israel might have bigger concerns than a Russian missile defense system on its northern border.

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