The Syrian Dilemma after the US attack. Br. General Ahmed Hany Hassanain

The Syrian Dilemma after the US Attack

Br. General Dr. Ahmed Hany Hassanain

Who fired the chemical weapons to give the American an excuse to attack Syrian air force? In other words who did it to change Trump’s stance on the Syrian crisis and to hit the Syrian army instead of ISIS that he promised to fight?

The Syrian story was that the fighters bombed a store that ISIS used to stockpile poisonous gas. The Western story was that Bashar used the war gases to kill his people. However who stockpiled war gas in Syria after it gave all its chemical weapons. Why did not the American wait for an international investigations?

In fact all the rivals who fight each other on the ground got advantages from that aggression. President Trump needed it to prove himself and to show the Russians that he can take military decisions without the support of the international community. Whether he was convinced by the Pentagon and the CIA reports or not he needed to show his strength before the next negotiation round in Geneva.

The Russians who achieved victory last year in the Syrian front needed it also. Opposition in Russia criticizes Putin because he sent troops to foreign land and Russian soldiers were killed. They fear most another Afghanistan like war that drag the Russian army into it without clear vision on how to end it. Now that the Americans showed power he will portray himself as the savior of the Russian interest in Syria and the Middle East.

The Iranians also needed the American aggression even if it was directed to their forces as some stories told. The last few weeks witnessed trials from the Syrian armed forces to replace the Iranian and Hezbo-Allah troops that fought beside the army against ISIS. After what the army achieved it wanted to move the foreign troops to other places to be evacuated in a later stage. The Iranian project of the Shiaa crescent contradicts this move. As the West may start war another plans may force Syria to ask Iran to keep its troops on the ground.

The Saudis, and Gulf rulers found the American aggression an opportunity to praise president Trump so that they may have better relations with the new American Administration that forced them to pay about two hundred and twenty billion dollars as long term investment. They are scared of Trump’s statements about financing terrorism and about the price of protecting the Arab Royal families.

Turkey wants the Syrian army to be vanished so that the divided Syrian land becomes its playground to annex and to build military bases that help in its fight against the Kurds.

Even president Bashar will be more powerful after the attack as his people will gather more around him and the message to them is that he is the man who can stand against the west especially after the support that he had from the Russians in the form of upgrading his air defense forces.

However the roots of the Syrian crisis is that Qatar and Turkey wants the gas pipes pass through Syria to reach Europe and the West supports that to end the Russian pressure on Europe as the European now depends on the Russian gas. The Russians and the Syrians do not want that project that may weaken the Russians against the West and the consequences will be Western domination upon the Middle East.

The Syrian citizens pay the prices while most of them do not know why they and their kids are killed.