Understanding Dem Over Sampling in the Polls
Most polling houses are basing their assumptions on who will vote based on the turn out in 2008 and completely ignoring turn out in 2010. They explain over at Battleground Watch.
I went to great lengths to debunk the over-sampling of Democrats in polling used across polling outfits. As a brief reminder, they use the prior election as their base model (7 percentage points more Democrats than Republicans) for consistency sake but not for accuracy sake. Only Rasmussen Reports aggressively surveys the public to get a sense of current party affiliation and weights his polls accordingly. This is why, despite hysterical protests from the Left, Rasmussen consistently calls the Presidential races better than his competitors.
Look at the numbers….
conservatives will through broken glass and hot coals to pull the lever against Obama. The 2008 enthusiasm gap has reversed.
The bottom line is that, if the polls are discouraging you, the plan of the MSM funded pollster is working.
2012-09-17 13:49:39
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