He'll carry Florida and Ohio, and he will win! The mass-media are crapping in their pants now, and are on overdrive. That October Surprise won't really matter. The mass media rig the polls and the NBC/WSJ poll is managed by a big Hillary supporter. Trump is right to say it's rigged. Independent polls using accurate methodologies rather than polls designed to achieved desired-for outcomes show Trump in the lead.
The reason why Trump will win owes to considerably low voter turnout in the past few years and a high turnout among particular kinds of people this year. People on the Right like myself hate the GOP establishment, because they sell out and cuck their political base. There were many who lean Right but who wouldn't vote for Romney for the reasons Joshua Dermer won't vote for him (i.e., he's not “Christian” enough.) In Montana turnout is an astounding 90% already. Many sat on the sidelines and wouldn't vote for McCain since he's a worthless chameleon and would present himself as a Bible-thumping conservative on his autodialer in the 'solid south' and he would concurrently be a worthless tax and spend moderate liberal when marketing himself to New Englanders.
Evangelicals won't sit out on Trump and screw this up . . . they spoiled Romney's parade but won't do the same to Trump.
Demographics does doom us long-term now unless it's averted. But Trump is the Hail Mary for the white majority in the 4th quarter of the game.