Could this be a real thing?
Those battleground state polls that paint such a grim picture of Donald Trump’s prospects against Hillary Clinton? Most Republican insiders don’t believe they’re accurately capturing Trump’s true level of support.
That’s according to the POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 key battleground states. More than seven-in-10 GOP insiders, 71 percent, say the polls understate Trump’s support because voters don’t want to admit to pollsters that they are backing the controversial Republican nominee.
“I’m not sure how big a factor it is, but there is definitely a ‘Bradley effect’ going on out there,” said a Virginia Republican, referring to the African-American mayor of Los Angeles who led in polls but lost unexpectedly in the 1982 California gubernatorial race. “I personally know many Republicans that won’t admit that they are voting for Trump. I don’t like admitting it myself. It won’t matter if Hillary is up more than 5 points, but we might be in for a surprise if Hillary’s lead is less than 5 points on Election Day.”
A Michigan Republican — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously —added that Trump voters are reticent to admit it publicly: “Anecdotally, that’s clearly the case in barber-shop conversations.”
Every time I hear this kind of schtick on the radio or TV, or in articles, I roll my eyes. It sounds rather wishful and divorced from reality, does it not? But, what if it is real? What if there are tons of people who refuse to admit that they are voting for Trump, including to pollsters? We’ve seen some massive flipping of polls over the past few months, and especially in the past few weeks. I’m not quite sure why someone would refuse to tell a pollster who they’re voting for, but, could you see it happen, with people not wanting to admit they’re voting for Trump?
Where the big difference could be made is within the #NeverTrump and GOP fence sitter #NeverHillary community. What if all these millions of Republicans decide to vote for Trump at the last minute? Usually, I would have hit the early voting booth yesterday, having the day off, but, I’m holding out till next week, to see if Trump can give me a reason to vote for him, at least as a vote against Hillary. Or, do I simply not vote president, and just vote down ballot? That’s the conundrum. Many, many more might be facing the same prospect.
Even 26% of Democrats think the polls underestimate Trump’s support, while 71% of Republicans think the polls understate.
It’s a long, long article, worth the read. And it does beg the question: could this mean more actual votes for Trump (with a goodly chunk being protest votes against Hillary) than thought of ?