Donald J. Trump is President-Elect with a yuge, historic victory, following Palin stump stops. He is building his cabinet which could include Sarah Palin as Secretary of the Interior. Her 2016 Endorsement Success Rate is 82%. SarahPAC employee, Palin friend Carol Ryan dies of cancer. Plus, we have a run of Palin family posts. This was a busy and historic week. Let’s get right to it….
2016 Endorsement Success
Sarah Palin’s final Endorsement Success Rate for 2016 is 82.35% and her overall overage over six years in which endorsements were made is 67%. This was her best year ever and spiked her overall average over the years by 7 full percentage points. Remember, the bulk of 2016 endorsements were made in 2015 for candidates who stood against ObamaTrade.
Starting with President Elect Trump, primaries are conducted in 50 states, Washington, D.C., and five territories, for a total of 56. So, we cacluated as if he were 56 people, because this is fair and reflects reality. A down-ticket candidate only has to run a primary in one state or district. The President-Elect won 42/56 primaries resulting in the Endorsement Success Rate being 75%. Being President-Elect, the number stands.
Sarah Palin endorsed 50 down-ticket candidates of whom four did not run. These four are not counted, therefore. The remaining 46 consist of 39 U.S. House Seats, six U.S. Senate Seats, and 1 State Senate seat.
To arrive at our 2016 Endorsement Success Rate, remember President-Elect Trump is counted as 56. We add the 46 down-tickets who ran to this number and arrive at 102. Recall that President-Elect Trump won 42 out of 56 primaries, so we start with 42 wins. Of the 46 downtickets who ran, 42 won. Both sets of wins add up to 84: 84/102*100= 82.35%. That’s how we arrived at the 2016 Endorsement Success Rate.
Here are some sub-categorized Endorsement Success numbers:
State Senate: 100%
U.S. House: 97.44%
President-Elect Trump: 75%
U.S. Senate: 50%
The State Senate seat is easy enough: one candidate, one win – 100%.
The U.S. House numbers are statistically far greater than the general 60% – 67% range for her successes. Quite a number of these candidates ran uncontested, so these were easy wins, and in all fairness really should not be considered an endorsement success. Remeber, though in 2014 Sarah Palin had a rough primary season where her numbers declined; they came back up in the general. So, this cuts both ways.
We already explained at length how we arrived at President-Elect Trump’s number.
Sarah Palin’s endorsement success on U.S. Senate runs under-performed the other offices with three out of her six endorsees losing. One of them, Rob Maness is now a two-time loser with Palin endorsements.
Endorsement Success First- and Second-Time Losers
In 2014, we did some forecast modeling with candidates who lost despite a Palin endorsement. We did not release these numbers at the time, but we think it’s important to have a frank conversation about this now. Some candidates are fatally flawed and a Palin endorsement is simply not going to help these people win.
Our predictive model showed that a candidate who lost a first run with a Palin endorsement only had a 16.67% chance of winning on a re-endorsement. Such a candidate requires significant extra scrutiny. Candidates are unelectable for a variety of reasons: ideologue, not likeable, eccentric, or involvement in some sort of scandal.
A two-time loser runs into negative odds. With a two-time loser, the odds are so bad, that Sarah Palin would have to endorse the person 100 times to get a win…that’s more than a lifetime of endorsements. Imagine 100 legal maximum donations? That’s $500K squandered. A candidate who loses twice on two Palin endorsements is unelectable. Lt. Col. Maness may be a good man, but he now resides firmly in this class, along with Steve Lonegan, Joe Miller (a three-time loser, two of them on Palin endorsements), and Dan Bongino, as notable examples. Why these candidates are unelectable is beyond the scope of this Palin highlight and quite frankly is their problem. The point is that a Sarah Palin endorsement of any two-time loser is pure squander and a complete waste of SarahPAC donor’s money.
Fortunately, no two-time losers have received a third Palin endorsement.
Final Word on Endorsement Success Rate, SarahPAC
We have a page dedicated to this subject, but suffice it to say, “Sarah Palin’s Endorsement Success Rate is a predictor of a candidate’s ability to win an election – all other factors being equal – because of her endorsement.” It is not not a measure of her ability to predict. Endorsement is an act of support on her part, not forecasting. Many factors go into a candidate’s success or failure, the Palin endorsement being one when it’s given.
It’s no secret that SarahPAC’s coffers are diminishing and have been over the last two years. Next year is expected to be a quiet year and outside of any special elections, we expect little or no endorsement activity. As we move into the next subject, we need to understand that major changes will come if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is appointed a cabinet post. It’s reasonable to expect that SarahPAC could close if she is appointed and accepts a cabinet position.
Sarah Palin Being Considered for Secretary of the Interior
Sarah Palin is one of seven people being considered for Secretary of the Interior according to a report by BuzzFeed. The other six are: Govs. Mary Fallin and Jan Brewer; Venture Capitalist Robert Grady and Businessman Harold Hamm, who are also being considered for Secretary of Energy; Oil Executive Forrest Lucas, and Rep. Cynthia Lummis.
NY Post – Trump likely to fill up his Cabinet with DC outsiders – according to this article, rumors started by people who were wrong about President-Elect Trump’s chances of winning are that Sarah Palin is being considered for Secretary of the Interior.
The news of a position as Secretary of Energy or Secretary of the Interior being possible for Sarah Palin began with this Politico report.
If Sarah Palin is appointed to and accepts a cabinet post, US for Palin will transition to that footing.
EXCLUSIVE — Sarah Palin: Michigan Finally Went Rogue
Flipping Michigan red is huge. It had been a blue state since 1988, so it was thrilling to see the numbers today. They deserve the best.
Michigan really can be the “Comeback State.” I told people at my recent rallies there that they are blessed with every element of a perfectly positive storm that could, finally, rev up their state’s economy like they deserve: the natural resources, the industrial infrastructure, and most importantly the manpower and work ethic. And now, finally, Michigan has chosen a pro-private sector presidential candidate who knows how to create jobs.
I’ve felt this way about Michigan for many years, including in 2008 when the McCain/Palin campaign staffers shocked us with unexpected news that the campaign was pulling out of the Great Lakes State.
It was a rotten decision to bail on Michigan.
After that day the “she’s going rogue” mantra stuck, especially every time I spoke candidly and ignored the TelePrompTer. I wrote the bestseller Going Rogue with Michigan as an inspiration.
LIVE at the Trump Victory party with Palin, Diamond & Silk, Milo & more…
C4P – Sarah Palin campaigns for Trump in Powell, Ohio
C4P – Sarah Palin Campaigns for Donald Trump in Cincinnati
Time to decide! HEAR Sarah Palin, Donald J. Trump on Mama Grizzly Radio
It’s time to decide! The long run for the White House is coming to an end. It’s time to vote. Today on the Palin Update with Kevin Scholla, we look ahead at the big vote and we look back at how we got here. We’ll hear from Donald Trump and Sarah Palin ahead of the long awaited presidential election. It’s time to Make America Great Again. Don’t miss this big Election 2016 edition. Also, Governor Palin campaigns for Mr. Trump in three states. Plus, a brand new segment of Liberty & Legacy with Tamara Colbert in Texas is featured. Mama Grizzly Radio is ON DEMAND and available for DOWNLOAD anytime. Mama Grizzly Radio…hear the roar!
Sarah Palin Michigan Trump Round-Up, Speech, Interview, More
On-location video dispatches, photos, and local media dispatches from Sarah Palin’s stump for Trump speech in Alpena, Michigan, and Bill O’Reilly interview.
On-location coverage of Sarah Palin’s speech in Alpena, MI
On-location coverage of Sarah Palin’s speech in Alpena, MI by Jodie Brown.
Palin Friend, SarahPAC Employee Dies of Cancer
When any Palinista sent or received correspondence from Sarah Palin, it was processed by Mrs. Carol Ryan, 72, a SarahPAC employee, who died November 5, 2016 after a long battle with brain cancer.
It’s Never Too Late to Stand Up and Fight for America
Facebook Statuses, SarahPAC
Men and women in service have always been the nation’s exceptional ones.
They sacrificed more to protect our freedom than anyone else, certainly more than today’s reporters, celebrities, politicians, and protestors.
In peacetime and wartime, while we prayed for freedom, they got up every day and fought for it.
Veterans, we owe you.
I love you.
– Sarah Palin
Now the hard work begins to get government off your back and back on your side. May the wisdom of Solomon guide all decisions.
We cast the vote for the Trump movement because it was a vote for American exceptionalism, which leads to peace through our strength. And, because this is our candidate.
Western states – America needs you! PLEASE GO VOTE! Ignore exit polls; shake off any damper the media wants to lay over our beautifully pristine, resource-rich, vibrant Western states with their premature “results” they like to broadcast.
Upon the stage that’s now set here in NYC, remarks will be given that change our lives out West… as soon as Presidential results are known. Who that President will be is up to the West now.
Work your circle of friends and family in our Western states to vote ASAP. Tell them if they don’t vote, they can’t complain.
Go West! Go Vote!
Loading up this morning to depart for NYC.
Trump must have the strength of Samson to have kept up his campaign schedule!
Trump’s travels, rallies, interviews, media outreach, greetings, etc., are absolutely unsurpassed in the history of American politics, indicative of the energy he’ll bring to DC (needed to drain the swamp). The candidate has done his part on the trail, now it’s our turn. Remind him with your vote that you have his back.
– Sarah Palin
It’s morning in America! The new day is welcomed with a spectacular heartland sunrise as polls open here in Ohio. This paints the promise of America!
We’ve surpassed a record 200 million registered voters. Please get out early; encourage friends; be vigilant at polling places with a peaceful, patriotic presence that must ensure the integrity of this election.
Claim our future today by exercising your sacred right to vote for the honest, trusted leadership you and your family deserve.
Make America Great Again!
Ok, I take it back. Polls aren’t ONLY good for strippers and cross country skiers… not when they look like this! Yesterday was a spectacular day in Michigan; the many Reagan Democrats we met are coming home! They can Make America Great Again. Go Michigan!
Joined a basket of thee most delightful deplorables here in Zanesville, OH ready to Make America Great Again! One more day and we’re on the starting line! Keep the faith.
– Sarah Palin
They can live that dream here in these fruited plains, picturesque communities, and beautiful cities with huge potential throughout Ohio. Seeing thousands of hard working patriots today who know what’s at stake tomorrow, I’m convinced the Buckeye State turns red. They’re sharing their concerns, but also spreading enormous enthusiasm for what can happen in America’s heartland!
The recurring message here is about that crossroads in front of us. The directional choice is clear:
1) let freedom ring and get government off our back – putting it back on our side – so our families, our farms, our businesses, our communities can thrive so vibrantly again! Or,
2) grow government and feel its shackles tighten and suffocate under insurmountable debt and regulation that sucks life out of the private sector.
Thank God we have a candidate who understands and respects the private sector, and has masterfully created jobs. His opponent’s understanding of what it takes to grow this economy is mind boggling. Hillary Clinton actually believes – in her own words – that a businessman or woman’s work ethic and productivity can’t lead to a job. She who struggles to understand a community’s economic development potential, said, “Don’t let anyone tell you corporations and businesses create jobs.” That worldview – that bigger, more controlling government is the answer to unemployment – is downright dangerous.
Be proud we finally have an American entrepreneur who will surround himself with responsible, ethical helpmates to administer policies allowing YOU to make America great again! Your small business, your town’s Main St., your family’s American dream – all reaching your goals when Trump puts YOU back in charge!
Ohio knows this. Trump appreciates that. He won’t let you down.
– Sarah Palin
Law & Order is something Trump will restore! Law & Order is something Hillary DVRs.
If you ❤️ your freedom, thank a vet! We are so grateful. It’s inspiring to see so many warriors raise their hand so boldly to stand with Donald J. Trump.
O-H-I-O is ready to go RED – thank you Cincinnati for supporting Donald J. Trump! And thank you for the beautiful buckeye necklace!
You changed my mom’s life with your crusades back in the 70’s. This led to the whole family finding the path to a closer walk with God, which became our cornerstone. So I thank you for your mighty influence then, and your continued influence as your work for Christ impacts the world. Keep showing us the way, Dr. Graham.
– Sarah Palin
Back to the Buckeye State! Calls from Trump Tower late today announce the mission for supporters is “divide and conquer”, so with the Tarheel State covered tomorrow by the “Women For Trump” bus tour (and the man himself!) we head back to beautiful Ohio for a full day of energizing events. Hope to see you on the trail!
10:05am – Hamilton County Grassroots Rally
Location: Anderson Bar & Grill
Address: 8060 Beechmont Ave; Cincinnati, OH
12:10pm – Montgomery County Grassroots Meet & Greet
Location: Trump-Pence Victory Center
Address: 3020 Far Hills Avenue; Kettering, OH
2:10pm – Fayette County Grassroots Rally
Location: Fayette County Airport
Address: 2770 Ohio 38; Washington Court House, OH
4:50pm – Muskingum County Grassroots Rally
Location: Scale Haus Banquet Barn
Address: 1900 Lutz Lane, Building B; Zanesville, OH
7:00pm – Franklin County Grassroots Rally
Location: Scioto Park Amphitheater
Address: 7377 Riverside Dr.; Dublin, OH
Something’s happening in Michigan… they’ve got a monster vote ready to show the rest of America. They, too, have had enough government run amok, suffocating federal debt with no end in sight, and corruption that AFFECTS THEIR LIVES.
Thank you, Midland, for your passion for this nation that YOU will make great again!
It may not be “Summer Time in Northern Michigan”
…but these towns are hot, hot, hot for Trump. Fired up to Make America Great Again!
This is the “Comeback State” and industry will roar to life when government gets off their back and is put back on their side. You feel the patriotic spirit here and see it in voters’ eyes – they’re ready to put their tremendous Michigan work ethic to WORK!
We stopped in the local Cheboygan campaign HQ to thank folks for helping awaken the giant that now roars: “America First!” Great crowd (lots of Alaska connections!); great questions; encouragement all around.
Now headed to Alpena, then onto Midland, then Detroit where I’ll find a place to catch some Redwings victory tonight!
11:30 am Alpena, MI Trump HQ; 224 East Chisholm Rd.
Alpena, MI 49707
3:00 PM Midland, MI Trump HQ; 109 E Ashman,Midland, MI 48640
Look forward to joining the Women For Trump bus tomorrow in North Carolina! Hope you can join us in Charlotte at 10:00 AM – Richard Petty Motorsports; 112 Byers Creek Road, Mooresville, NC 28117
Obama Meme: If Trump is Elected, He’ll Reverse Everything I have Done – Trump: Believe me, that is the plan.