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Pollsters Ignored Their “Check Assumptions” Lights

Thursday, November 10, 2016 12:10
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Back in 2000 and again in 2004, I enjoyed a small piece of influence through political opinion poll analysis. Statistics is an intriguing science, all the more because it tries to quantify and predict human behavior. But that same human behavior also skews how people think, including analysts, and in 2008 and 2012 it caused me to miss important trends in American politics. I was embarrassingly wrong in predicting the Presidential elections, especially missing the energy of Obama’s 2008 run. So I backed off, paid more attention to my regular job and family, and paid less attention to statistics. Others

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