Today, November 1, 2015 @5:20am–“Floridians had cast a record 4.4 million pre-Election Day ballots, 1.79 million (40.3 percent) by Republicans and 1.77 million (39.9 percent) by Democrats. That’s a GOP lead of 21,000 raw votes and 0.5 percentage points six days before Election Day. Compare that to Democrats’ lead of 1.8 percentage points (48,604 raw votes of the nearly 2.7 million ballots cast) six days out in 2012.
Back then, Obama needed that cushion to beat Mitt Romney in Florida by less than a point. Now, with the rolls reversed, Democrats are trying to find silver linings in the numbers. But the general rule in early and absentee-ballot voting is that you want to be ahead in banked votes when polls open on Election Day.
The early ballot numbers are updated throughout the day, so we’re on pace to easily hit 4.5 million votes. And in the past few days, thanks to banking absentee vote-by-mail ballots, the GOP lead over Dems has been increasing. Yesterday it was 16,000. Now it’s 21,212.”- Marc “Coyote” Caputo, Politico
Assuming that most Republicans have voted for Donald Trump (high probability) over Hillary Clinton, Trump wins, if the election was held today.
With all of this said, don’t forget about those Independents.
Add into the mix the Independent vote, which is usually comprised of disenfranchised former Republicans, Trump may have a huge vote advantage over Clinto going into the final days of early voting.
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