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WNC Faces Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms According to Storm Prediction center

Wednesday, March 1, 2017 11:49
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(Before It's News)

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed western North Carolina in an area where they expect there to be an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The northern half of the county is also in the 45% chance of experiencing damaging winds category and we are also at risk for experiencing hail.

If you work outdoors or are expecting to be on the roads from 3 pm to 5 pm or so, please remain indoors, or pay close attention to the weather around you and be ready to get indoors. Frequent lightning is also expected with these storms, so, if you hear thunder, please go indoors.

A high wind event is also expected to impact Macon County later this afternoon and continue overnight. Wind speeds are expected to reach 50 mph at times and a HIgh Wind Warning will probably be issued by the National Weather Service this afternoon.

Maps and information from the SPC is posted below. Macon Media has added annotations in bold to explain technical terms where they apply to us in Macon County.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Valid 011630Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS…NORTHERN AL…AND SOUTHERN TN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN STATES…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected from portions of the Southeast to the Mid Atlantic region and parts of southern New England. Damaging winds will be likely, and the risk for tornadoes will exist particularly from parts of northeast Mississippi to portions of north Georgia and vicinity.

…Portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic region and southern New England…

An extensive belt of strong mid/high-level flow across the Southern and Eastern States will maintain strong deep shear over a moist and diurnally destabilizing warm sector across the area. A squall line from Middle TN toward the central Appalachians will likely spread across the adjacent Piedmont during the next several hours. Re-intensification of this activity is expected, owing to the presence of adequate moisture return (upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) amidst surface heating and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Swaths of damaging wind gusts will be likely as this activity spreads toward the coastal plain through the evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible. Severe-wind probabilities have been increased eastward across the Piedmont area.

More separated updrafts/discrete convection are evolving across parts of the lower MS Valley, at the southern end of a zone of stronger deep ascent. As this activity spreads eastward toward parts of the southern Appalachians and vicinity, it will intercept a relatively more moist boundary layer supporting stronger instability further aided by steep midlevel lapse rates (around 8.5 C/km in the 700-500-mb layer per the 12Z [12Z was 7 am this morning] Jackson sounding). With 250-350 m2/s2 of effective SRH associated with modestly curved though long hodographs, [A hodograph is a plot of vertical wind shear from one level to another and is used by meteorologists to assess the potential for severe weather and tornado activity] tornado probabilities have been increased in this area.

With northward extent across the East (i.e., toward southern New England and vicinity), weaker instability will exist owing to more widespread cloud coverage amidst an antecedent cooler/drier boundary layer. However, strong vertical shear profiles will support a conditional severe risk.

Modest destabilization may take place around the upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes area amidst recycled moisture ahead of the primary cold front, perhaps supporting a band of strongly forced convection spreading eastward from the late afternoon through the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany this activity.


********************

DAY SPONSOR

Carrion Tree Service is underwriting the daily weather briefing and public safety updates for today. they are a fully licensed and insured tree service, specializing in dangerous tree removal, view clearing, pruning, and crane services with a 24 Hour emergency response.

Their phone number is 371-4718. They are located at 120 Depot Street.

They can handle all your tree removal needs in good or bad weather.

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Source: http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/wnc-faces-enhanced-risk-of-severe.html

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