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Surprise: Worst Case Hotcoldwetdry Prognostications Are Most Accurate Or Something

Thursday, December 7, 2017 9:10
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Who’s surprised by this latest bit of cult validation, raise your hand

Worst-case global warming predictions are the most accurate, say climate experts

Current predictions of climate change may significantly underestimate the speed and severity of global warming, according to a new study.

Reappraisal of the models climate scientists use to determine future warming has revealed that less optimistic estimates are more realistic.

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, an atmospheric scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science, who co-authored the new study. (the actual number they’re trotting out is 4.43C, which equals 7.7F)

This likelihood is an increase on past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

Of course! What they did was look at a whole bunch of models, and then take the ones that were best at replicating (snicker) the most recent past. They added in some water vapor, and, wallah! a doomy prognostication.

Other outlets, such as the Washington Post, have picked up on this, and are even more doomy than the above UK Independent.


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