The Clinton proposal includes a new tax credit for deductibles and copayments not covered by insurance, a richer formula for health law subsidies, a fix for the law's “family glitch” that can deny subsidies to some dependents, and a new government-sponsored “public option” health plan.
Taken together, the analysis estimated that Clinton's proposals would reduce the number of uninsured people in 2018 to 15.8 million, which translates to a gain of 9.1 million people with coverage. Not included were Clinton's idea for allowing middle-aged adults to buy into Medicare and her plan to convince more states to expand Medicaid.
According to the Commonwealth Fund study released Friday, Donald Trump would cause about 20 million to lose coverage while Clinton would provide an additional 9 million people.
One worrisome finding is that the number of uninsured people in fair or poor health could triple under Trump. When uninsured people wind up in the hospital, the cost of their treatment gets shifted to others, including state and federal taxpayers.
The study panned one of Trump's main ideas: allowing insurers to sell private policies across state lines. Insurers would cherry-pick the healthiest customers and steer them to skimpy plans … the overall conclusion seems to be on target … “You could quibble about some of the modeling, but directionally I think it's right,” said economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, a center-right public policy center.
The study estimated that Trump's repeal of “Obamacare” would increase the number of uninsured people from 24.9 million to 44.6 million in 2018. The tax deduction and interstate health insurance sales would help some stay covered, but the Medicaid block grant would make even more people uninsured. The result would be an estimated 45.1 million uninsured people in 2018 under Trump – an increase of 20.2 million, reversing the coverage gains under Obama.
Recent analysis that delved into the candidates' tax proposals, by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, found that Trump's latest tax proposals would increase federal debt by $5.3 trillion over the next decade, compared with $200 billion if Clinton's ideas were enacted.
A former liberal radio talk host who likes to ask the “follow-up question” at Democurmudgeon.blogspot.com