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NY Times: Ohio Is No Longer a Bellwether Because Hillary Is Losing

Friday, September 30, 2016 8:27
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Yes, it has been 56 years since Ohio voted for the loser in the presidential election, but The New York Times is now saying Ohio is “a melting iceberg, has slowly been losing its status as the country’s bellwether”:

“ATHENS, Ohio — After decades as one of America’s most reliable political bellwethers, an inevitable presidential battleground that closely mirrored the mood and makeup of the country, Ohio is suddenly fading in importance this year.

Hillary Clinton has not been to the state since Labor Day, and her aides said Thursday that she would not be back until next week, after a monthlong absence, effectively acknowledging how difficult they think it will be to defeat Donald J. Trump here. Ohio has not fallen into step with the demographic changes transforming the United States, growing older, whiter and less educated than the nation at large.

And the two parties have made strikingly different wagers about how to win the White House in this election: Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee, is relying on a demographic coalition that, while well tailored for Ohio even in the state’s Democratic strongholds, leaves him vulnerable in the more diverse parts of the country where Mrs. Clinton is spending most of her time. …

Some political veterans speak with wonder about private polls showing Mr. Trump leading even in bedrock Democratic communities. “I see, at best, lack of enthusiasm in traditional Democratic areas,” said Dennis E. Eckart, a former Democratic congressman from suburban Cleveland. …”

As soon as Hillary perks back up in the polls in Ohio, I expect you will find that Ohio’s bellwether status has been magically restored!

If Trump wins Iowa and Ohio, I predict he will win the election, and vice versa for Hillary. I do not expect Trump will win Iowa and Ohio, but lose the election because he lost North Carolina and Florida. It could very well happen, but I seriously doubt it given the partisan alignment and history of those two states. Similarly, no candidate with a commanding lead in Iowa and Ohio is down 6 to 7 points nationwide.

Just like after the conventions, the polls are going to bounce up and down as we move through the debates. They always do. Ohio, however, is going to vote for the winner. Bet on it.

Note: Let me explain.

For Hillary to have any chance of winning Florida and North Carolina, she will need AN EXTRAORDINARY BLACK TURNOUT. The bottom line is, Obama couldn’t win North Carolina in 2012 and black turnout in that year exceeded White turnout for the first time in history. In 2012, Obama won Florida by 74,309 votes. 95 percent of blacks in Florida voted for Obama. He won Florida by less than 1 percent.

Obama is far, far more popular than Hillary and he barely won Florida and lost North Carolina in 2012. Obama had to get 95 percent of the black vote in Florida to win. Hillary is getting around 81 percent of the black vote. Obama had Millennials in his camp. Hillary is losing huge numbers of Millennials to Gary Johnson. Fewer Millennials plan to vote in this election than in any election in the past 16 years.

One more thing that is highly significant about Florida: it is one of the oldest states in the United States. As everyone who lives in Florida knows, it is full of retirees from the Northeast and Midwest. Barack Obama barely beat Mitt Romney in Florida and he could scare them into believing Paul Ryan wanted to take away their Social Security.

What about Hispanics? They’re not particularly excited about Hillary either. Before the presidential debate, she was losing Nevada and hanging on by a nail in Colorado. The polls are bouncing around now, but they will settle before the election.

Could Trump find some way to bungle his way to a defeat in North Carolina and Florida? Sure, but if did that he would be because he is losing nationwide, not because he is winning Ohio and Iowa, but somehow losing Florida and North Carolina. I don’t expect that to happen.


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