More than seven-in-10 GOP insiders in battleground states say the polls understate Donald Trump’s support because voters don’t want to admit to pollsters that they support him, according to Politico.
Politico is not going to be talking mainly to pro-Trump enthusiasts. It would be surveying seasoned Republican operatives with knowledge of their states. Lots of these people probably aren’t too keen on Trump, though they may want him to defeat Hillary because they loathe her even more.
And Politico tried to play down the implications. According to the piece:
With Trump falling behind in the majority of swing states, an overwhelming polling error may represent his best hope to win next month — and even that may not be enough. At the same time GOP insiders say there are “shy Trump” voters out there who aren’t showing up in the polls, a 59-percent majority still say Clinton would win their state if the election were held today.
“I’m not sure how big a factor it is, but there is definitely a ‘Bradley effect’ going on out there,” said a Virginia Republican, referring to the African-American mayor of Los Angeles who led in polls but lost unexpectedly in the 1982 California gubernatorial race. “I personally know many Republicans that won’t admit that they are voting for Trump. I don’t like admitting it myself. It won’t matter if Hillary is up more than 5 points, but we might be in for a surprise if Hillary’s lead is less than 5 points on Election Day.”
It seems to me that anyplace Trump is within two or three points is a likely win for him. And the polls seem to be moving his way.
The ABC News tracking poll— which surveys too many Democrats — had Clinton up by 12 a few days ago but now has her up by six. The L.A. Times poll, which had a tie, today has Trump up by two. Others have Clinton ahead by about one to nine points.
The next few days are critical for both candidates in terms of the polls. Clinton, through Wikileaks, is being pounded daily with negative publicity. People may start getting the sense that as queasy as they are about Trump, they are even more uncomfortable with her.
If the numbers start moving Trump’s way, he has a serious chance. If not, then short of some kind of insane bombshell leak, I don’t see what’s going to move them.
But either way, I don’t understand this prevailing theme, even among Republicans, that the election is over. It’s not.