“Watch the performance of the stock market between August 1 and October 31. If stocks go up during that three-month stretch, expect Clinton to win. If stocks slide, Trump will likely prevail.
At the moment, Trump has a slight edge because the S&P 500 (the main U.S. stock market index) has fallen a small amount since August 1. But it is nearly back to where it was on that day.
It might sound far-fetched, but the stock market has been astonishingly accurate at predicting the winner in every election since 1944, according to Sam Stovall, a stock market expert at S&P Global Market Intelligence. …
The S&P closed on August 1: 2,170
The S&P closed on October 31: 2,126