Monmouth’s latest out of Nevada is just more bad news for Donald Trump, especially ahead of tonight’s debate (yes, that is a thing that is still happening). The poll has Hillary Clinton at 47, Trump at 40, and Gary Johnson at 7. In September, Hillary was down by two (44-42 Trump).
But wait, there’s more:
The rise in Clinton’s support over the past month is due mainly to two groups that normally lean Democratic – non-white voters and younger voters. Clinton has expanded her lead among non-white voters, now at 67% to 18% compared with 63% to 28% in September. She has also pulled ahead among voters under the age of 50 – now leading Trump by 55% to 28% compared with a virtual tie (41% Clinton to 40% Trump) last month.
These shifts have come mainly from male voters in these groups. Clinton has improved her margin over Trump among non-white men from 50% – 36% in September to 63% – 22% in the current poll. Her standing among non-white women has changed only slightly by comparison, from 72% – 22% last month to 70% – 15% now. In September, Trump had a 44% to 29% lead among male voters under 50 years old. Clinton has now reversed this to claim a sizable 53% – 30% advantage over her opponent among young men. By comparison, her support among women under age 50 has grown by a smaller amount, going from a 52% – 36% lead last month to a 58% – 26% lead now.
Despite what several Trump supporters may scream, this is actual, real, scientific data. And, yes, it means something bad is happening to Trump. A 4-point drop for him and a 5-point jump for Hillary? That’s not good. And, with millions of votes already cast in early voting, it’s too little too late for anything to push this one back into Trump’s column.
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