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The Horserace – October 6, 2016

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 20:24
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National Polls

Gravis – Tie


The last Gravis poll which came out while I was on the way to Arkansas had Hillary +4. This was three days before the first presidential debate and shortly before some good Gravis state polls came out in Minnesota and Colorado. Now, it has returned to a Tie.

The Horserace has noticed these national polls tend to move in sync. The PPD tracking poll showed a post-debate bounce for Hillary, but it quickly faded. The UPI tracking poll also showed a slight bounce for Hillary, but it also faded. Yesterday, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll showed a similar fade after a big post-debate surge for Hillary.

For some reason, The Horserace has noticed that the LA Times poll moves like the other tracking polls, but is off by about 5-7 days. Just by observing the tracking polls, you can predict the trend in the media polls. The FOX poll and CNN poll are very similar and tend to move in sync with and slightly behind the Rasmussen poll.

In August and September, we noticed this pattern and it suggests the race is already settling down again. It will be shaken up again on Sunday and again after the last debate on October 19th.


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