The Des Moines Register poll is considered one of the best in the country. So it is nearly impossible to say a poll they release is an outlier.
Trump has been leading (slightly) in Iowa for some time now. But for this poll to show Trump with a big lead, means he is likely going to prevail:
Donald Trump has surged to a 7-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton among Iowa voters, firmly establishing the Republican presidential nominee as the favorite to win the state’s six electoral votes on Tuesday.
Trump is the top choice for 46 percent of Iowans who have already cast a ballot or plan to do so on Election Day, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, compared to 39 percent who say they’re for Clinton.
That makes the state Trump’s to lose, political analyst Amy Walter said.
“The bigger surprise on election night would be if he lost Iowa, not that he won it,” said Walter, national editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Barack Obama won Iowa by six points in 2012. If Trump wins by seven, that would be a thirteen point swing in four years. That is crazy.
2016 continues to make little sense.
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