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How have events shaped the Clinton-Trump race? [Greg Laden's Blog]

Wednesday, October 19, 2016 13:49
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(Before It's News)

It is unfortunate that “all the pundits” are now saying that
Clinton will now win no matter what, and that Trump will likely
suffer more scandal before the end of the process.

This is unfortunate because a weak get out the vote effort is
probably worth a couple of points on election day. It is
unfortunate because some Trump scandals increase, rather than
decrease, his numbers. He could suddenly gain a couple of points if
he says or does just the wright/wrong things. It is unfortunate
because, for whatever reason, Hillary “My Middle Name is Target”
Clinton has turned into the Teflon Candidate for now, but that
won’t stick, as it were, for more than a day or two. Then
Wikileaks, weak as it is, or some other issue, will come into play
and knock two points off of her numbers.

It is unfortunate because the difference between Clinton and
Trump is now between about 5 and 7 points, and 2 + 2 + 2 = 6.

Do the math. This race is not over.

In order to give some idea of the magnitude of things like the
post-sexual-assault-revelations Trump Slump, or the conventions, or
a given debate, in relation to the overall shifts of numbers across
this race, I mad this chart, using RCP’s national polling averages,
and adding in some key moments from the campaign:

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alt="screen-shot-2016-10-19-at-3-00-12-pm" width="500" />

While Clinton has always been ahead, on average, she has not
always been that far ahead, and was, in fact, father ahead at
various points in the past than she is now. In other words, for all
the talk about BusTapeGate and debate performances, Clinton has not
pulled out ahead of Trump father than she has been in the past. If
you look at this graph, you do not see a clear breakout. And, if
you look at the MOST current version from RCP, as I write this, the
blue line on top is dropping (those data came in while I was
drawing this graphic, and I did not adjust). See that earlier peak
in September for Clinton? The current peak is starting to look like

So, no, this is not over, and it is not wise to insist that it

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