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Hurricane Nicole Heading For Bermuda [Greg Laden's Blog]

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 19:09
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Hurricane Nicole became a named storm right around the time that Matthew emerged, and seemed to spend several days observing from the deep Atlantic. Now, The story has cycled through various levels of strength, but is now a major hurricane, a Category 3.

Nicole will probably directly affect Bermuda tomorrow. Bermuda gets a lot of hurricanes, and of all the island polities in the Atlantic, it seems most readily able to handle them. But, I don’t think there’s been a Category 3 hurricane center on or very near the island since Fabian in 2003. That was a very destructive storm with considerable damage and widespread inundation.

Nicole pushed the total accumulated cyclone energy for the Atlantic to a very high October level, passing the previous record of 1963.

From Climate Signals:

Hurricane Nicole intensified into Cat 3 Hurricane on the evening of Oct 12 and is currently bearing down on Bermuda. Nicole marked the 3rd major hurricane of the North Atlantic season, qualifying 2016 as an above average hurricane season, and marking the most major hurricanes in a season since 2011. On Oct 12, Nicole also pushed the Atlantic’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy for October up to the most for any October since 1963. Nicole’s tremendous power and sustained strength are consistent with the observed trends in the Atlantic since the 1970’s. There is a significant risk that this trend is driven by global warming.

I suspect sea surface temperatures are behind the extra punch Nicole seems to have developed, and possibly, the storm’s long lifespan.

After punching Bermuda, Nicole will head out to sea, probably.


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