Profile image
Story Views

Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:

Another dip into solar-planetary theory

Friday, February 24, 2017 11:10
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

(Before It's News)

A bust of George Ellery Hale at Palomar Observatory [image credit: Visitor 7 / Wikipedia]

This is an extended re-write of the earlier post on this topic. The purpose is to explain the Jose cycle chart shown below (in blue).
– – –
The Hale cycle is the time taken for solar magnetic polarity to return to its initial state (i.e. two ~11-year cycles: one north, one south), so the two reversals of polarity take around 22 years.

Estimates of mean solar (Hale) cycle length:
‘Finally, we recover a 22.14-year cycle of the solar dynamo in the framework of a reduced zero-dimensional a-s dynamo model.’

N. Scafetta re JEV: The 22.14 yr period is very close to the ~22 yr Hale solar magnetic cycle

I. Wilson (2012)
A Planetary Spin-Orbit Coupling Model for Solar Activity
Hence, the basic unit of change in the Sun’s rotation rate (i.e. an increase followed by a decrease) is 2 x 11.07 years = 22.14 years. This is essentially equal to the mean length of the Hale magnetic sunspot cycle of the Sun which is 22.1 +/- 2.0 yrs).

The aim here is to link the Hale cycle to the planetary movements of Jupiter and Saturn.

Planetary theory – from Abreu et al (2012):
Results. We find an excellent agreement between the long-term cycles in proxies of solar activity and the periodicities in the planetary torque and also that some periodicities remain phase-locked over 9400 years.

Conclusions. Based on these observations we put forward the idea that the long-term solar magnetic activity is modulated by planetary effects. If correct, our hypothesis has important implications for solar physics and the solar-terrestrial connection.
– – –

Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits chart

In the Talkshop post Jupiter, Saturn and the de Vries cycle the graphic on the right showed the long-term orbital patterns in 14 Jose cycles ( = 14 x 9 = 126 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions).

Note that 85 S = 211 J = 126 J-S.
Dividing by the number of Jose cycles in the period i.e. 14:
S = 6 x 14, +1
J = 15 x 14, +1
J-S = 9 x 14 (9 J-S = 1 Jose cycle)
– – –
The Jose cycle chart (below, right) shows how the ‘components’ of the ~179-year Jose cycle fit together, using this data. Added in is the notional value of the number of mean Hale cycles expected in the period (8, + 1/14).

It’s a ‘model’ because not every 179 year period can be exactly the same, not least because solar cycles vary in length, within a range of roughly 11 +/- 3 years.

Linking the Hale cycle to the Jose cycle

However over very long periods the numbers may average out as per the model. The Hale cycle would have a mean value of 22.15~years according to the model, i.e. a 99.95% match with the estimates above.

The idea of 15 plus 1/14th Jupiter orbits was once put forward by planetary cycles researcher Timo Niroma:
‘And one guess: the weak 179-year supercycle may bind the 9.9-year cycle with 15 1/14 Jovian years. This may have repercussions to the hypothesis that every 15th cycle among some others have the length of one Jupiter year.’

Chart – re S-H and J-H:
7 + 2 = 9 J-S conjunctions
7 – 2 = 5 = Landscheidt’s ‘pentadactyl hand’ (Lake Saki Varves paper – see Figs. 2 and 3)
[7 * 2 = 14]
– – –
Landscheidt and the ‘pentadactyl hand’ [extract from link above]:
Lake Saki Varve Thickness and Impulses of the Torque

FIG. 2 : Smoothed 9-year running variance in the angular momentum of the sun’s motion about the center of mass of the solar system (v), for the period 700-1600. The cyclic pattern, formed by the curve, conveys the impression of five-fingered (pentadactyl) hands. [bold added]
– – –
A complete five-fingered hand covers a period of 178.8 years, the fundamental cycle in the sun’s motion discovered by Jose (1965) and studied by Fairbridge, Sanders, and Shirley (Fairbridge and Sanders 1987; Fairbridge and Shirley 1987). Dansgaard (Dansgaard et al. 1969) has derived a cycle of just 180 years in climate from the Camp Century ice core drilled from the Greenland Ice Sheet. This correspondence begs for investigation of a possible relationship of climate features with the complex pattern of the five-fingered hand, which reflects both variations in impulses of the torque in the sun’s motion and secular sunspot activity.

The mean interval between fingers of the hand is 35.76 years.
– – –
Re. the 179 year cycle:
Gerry Pease Links Improved and Updated Solar-Planetary paper – Gerry Pease and Gregory Glenn

Do the planets affect the sunspot cycle? – Ask the Astronomer [Dr. Sten Odenwald]

Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion – Fairbridge and Shirley (1987)


Report abuse


Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories



Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.