Stash ‘Em or Trash ‘Em: Will Lucas Duda Be Able To Turn Around His 2015 Season?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

After hitting 30 HR last season there were high expectations for the Mets’ Lucas Duda heading into 2015. The result? A bitterly disappointing start, as he entered play on Thursday hitting .255 with 10 HR and 33 RBI. We can point to the lack of supporting cast, which is fair, but the power is clearly down.

Or is it?

He does have 20 doubles, compared to 27 a year ago. That’s definitely encouraging. He’s also hit 7 of his 10 HR at CitiField, another sign pointing in the right direction. How about his average distance on non-groundballs:

• 2014 – 278.086
• 2015 – 272.871

It’s down, but not enough to justify a 30% dropoff in power. He did hit 7 HR in May alone, so we know it’s there. He just needs to find a little bit of consistency. Last season his worst month was 3 HR (which coincidentally came in May), so it is starting to look like the idea of putting pressure on himself holds at least some water.

In fact he hit just .187 in June, though the underlying metrics don’t scream of him swinging for the fences. His 48.5% fly ball rate is right in line with his May ’15 (49.3%) and 2014 (49.0%) numbers. It helps explain the ceiling on his average, even with a good eye at the plate (23.6% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate) and bloated line drive rate (27.5%). It doesn’t justify the lack of power.

One thought is the idea of him pressing. The other is that he’s playing injured. He did miss some time in late May with a tight hamstring and then again in early June with a swollen knee. It’s not unthinkable that one of those injuries have lingered and helped cause the loss of power and extended slump (not in April, but he hit for a strong average at that point).

The upcoming All-Star Break can’t come soon enough, as injured or not it will give Duda a few days off to rest and clear his head. Maybe that’s not the entire solution, but it can’t hurt. Regardless there still appears to be upside and reason to believe he will turn it around. Power is at a premium, so don’t give up on the potential.

Sources – Fangraphs, Baseball Heat Maps