Two-Start Pitchers 2016: August 22-28: Are There Any Gambles Worth Taking?

by Ray Kuhn

When it comes to pitchers taking the mound twice in a week, things could go either really good or really bad. There are certainly advantages to be gained by maximizing your starts, but if you do so with the wrong pitchers it can quickly turn into a disadvantage. With that in mind let’s take a look at how this week’s options rank.

Tier One:

1. Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants – at LA Dodgers; vs Atlanta
2. Jon Lester – Chicago Cubs – at San Diego; at LA Dodgers
3. David Price – Boston Red Sox – at Tampa Bay; vs. Kansas City
4. Stephen Strasburg – Washington Nationals – at Baltimore; vs. Colorado
5. Carlos Carrasco – Cleveland Indians – at Oakland; at Texas

Tier Two:

1. Chris Archer –  Tampa Bay Rays – vs. Boston; at Houston
2. Hisashi Iwakuma – Seattle Mariners – vs. NY Yankees; at Chicago White Sox

Tier Three:

1. Jameson Taillon – Pittsburgh Pirates – vs. Houston; at Milwaukee
2. Jaime Garcia – St. Louis Cardinals – vs. New York Mets; vs. Oakland
3. Danny Salazaar – Cleveland Indians – at Oakland; at Texas
4. Yordano Ventura – Kansas City Royals – at Miami; at Boston
5. Michael Pineda – New York Yankees – at Seattle; vs. Baltimore
6. Homer Bailey – Cincinnati Reds – vs. LA Dodgers; at Arizona

Tier Four:

1. Blake Snell – Tampa Bay Rays – vs. Boston; at Houston
2. Dylan Bundy – Baltimore Orioles – vs Washington; at New York Yankees
3. Scott Kazmir – LA Dodgers – at Cincinnati; vs. Chicago Cubs
4. Kevin Gausman – vs Washington; at New York Yankees
5. Doug Fister – Houston Astros – at Pittsburgh; vs. Tampa Bay
6. Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox – at Tampa Bay; vs. Kansas City

Tier Five:

1. Reynaldo Lopez – Washington Nationals – at Baltimore; vs Colorado
2. Mike Foltynewicz – Atlanta Braves – at Arizona; at San Francisco
3. Archie Bradley – Arizona Diamondbacks – vs. Atlanta; vs. Cincinnati
4. Chase Anderson – Milwaukee Brewers – vs. Colorado; vs. Pittsburgh
5. Ivan Nova – Pittsburgh Pirates – vs. Houston; at Milwaukee
6. Anibal Sanchez – Detroit Tigers – at Minnesota; vs. LA Angels
7. Jimmy Nelson – Milwaukee Brewers – vs. Colroado; vs. Pittsburgh
8. Sack Godley – Arizona Diamondbacks – vs. Atlanta; vs. Cincinnati
9. Ross Stripling – LA Dodgers – vs. San Francisco; vs. Chicago Cubs
10. Kyle Gibson – Minnesota Twins – vs. Detroit; at Toronto
11. Andrew Cashner – Miami Marlins – vs. Kansas City; vs San Diego

Tier Six:

1. Andrew Triggs – Oakland A’s – vs. Cleveland; at St. Louis
2. Jonathon Niese – New York Mets – at St. Louis; vs. Philadelphia
3. Edwin Jackson – San Diego Padres – vs. Chciago Cubs; at Miami
4. Chad Bettis – Colorado Rockies – at Milwaukee; at Washington
5. Tyler Skaggs – LA Angels – at Toronto; at Detroit
6. Rob Whalen – Atlanta Braves – at Arizona; at San Francisco
7. Anthony Ranuado – Chicago White Sox – vs. Philadelphia; vs. Seattle
8. Nick Martinez – Texas Rangers – at Cincinnati; vs. Cleveland
9. Joe Wieland – Seattle Mariners – vs. New York Yankees – at Chicago White Sox

Notes:

• What do we make of Stephen Strasburg’s last three starts? His ERA is a frightening 14.66, but his most recent start did come in the wonderland that is Coors Field. After allowing 10 runs in 10 innings in his two previous starts, the Rockies got to Strasburg for nine earned runs in 1.2 innings. Since the All-Star break he has seen his ERA come up from 2.51 to 3.59 with his WHIP climbing from 0.99 to 1.11. Now there is no way in which you are going to leave him on your bench, but there is some cause for concern. When you post a .463 BABIP in your last four starts, it is going to be quite difficult to find success, and the same can be said for his 46.6% strand rate. So far this season the right-hander has 179 strikeouts in 145.1 innings, and that gives you nice advantage when he takes the mound twice.
• Is Chris Archer finally living up to expectations? At this point it certainly looks that way, as talent was never a question. While Archer has been better as of late, a 3.06 second half ERA compared to 4.66 in the first half, his most recent start against the Padres truly was what we have been waiting for. Archer limited San Diego to just one run on four hits and a walk with nine strikeouts as he picked up his seventh victory. Strikeouts haven’t been an issue all season, as he is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings, but the big thing has been reducing his walks in the second half (9.9% to 4.3%).
• It might have taken a little longer than previously expected, but Dylan Bundy is finally making an impact. To be clear, by no means is Bundy a finished product but the right-hander is showing flashes of what made him a highly regarded prospect. After pitching well in relief to start the season, the Orioles have moved him into the rotation, and though seven starts we have seen a mixed bag of results. Bundy has three wins and two quality starts (he missed two others by a third of an inning) and while he is still working on pitching deep into games, only two starts could be classified as “busts”. In those starts Bundy has allowed nine earned runs in 7.2 innings, while in the other five starts opponents have managed just six earned runs in 29.1 innings. On the season he has a 3.36 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 75 innings to go along with a 1.29 WHIP.
• Are we finally seeing the Yordano Ventura some might have expected to see in April? Since the All-Star break it’s certainly looking that way. Two starts in which he only managed five innings each are all that have kept him from seven straight quality starts. In that span, Ventura has seen his ERA drop from 5.15 to 4.46 with his WHIP becoming a lot more respectable at 1.33. It truly has been a tale of two halves as he has seen his BABIP drop from .280 to .233 and his strand rate follow suit going from 68.5% to 88.2%. The true resting points for both are likely somewhere in the middle for his strand rate, but with a career BABIP of .286, you can’t look for much improvement there. However, a change for Ventura between the first half and the second half is that is ground ball to fly ball ratio has improved from 1.43 to 1.94 with his xFIP going from 4.86 to 3.99. There is no disputing his talent, and while you are still going to have to ride some inconsistent control things are looking a lot better for him as of late.
• How much stock should we put into Anibal Sanchez’s last start? The veteran took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and despite his early season struggles he looks a lot better (at least from a name recognition stand point) than a lot of his peers around that might be available on free agency (he is owned in 32% of CBS leagues as of Saturday morning). To say things have been up and down would be an understatement, mostly because there has been a lot more down as his 5.94 ERA and 1.51 WHIP certainly illustrate that point. While you don’t want to see your pitching walk 3.61 batters per nine innings, Sanchez also hasn’t helped himself by allowing 10 hits per nine innings; although he does have 110 strikeouts in 119.2 innings. A .324 BABIP hasn’t helped his cause this season and the same can be said for his 65.7% strand rate with his 4.68 xFIP offering some cause for optimism. This week he faces the Twins and Angels, and if you are desperate for help at the back of your rotation there are worse choices to be made.