Will 2016 Mark The Breakouts Of Giovani Bernard & Duke Johnson?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Sometimes it’s hard to determine whether or not we want to buy into the hype surrounding certain players.  Maybe we’ve been waiting for them to put it together or maybe there isn’t clarity to their role.  Will the touches increase?  Are they more of a PPR darling?  The same question hangs over a pair of potentially intriguing running backs, so let’s take a look as we try to determine their potential ’16 value:

Giovani Bernard – Cincinnati Bengals
Current Average ADP – 82.2

Fantasy owners have been waiting for Bernard to step up and become a Top 20 running back, but it simply hasn’t happened.  Instead the Bengals continue to force him to share time with Jeremy Hill, allowing him to run the ball at times and certainly catch the football:

• Rushing – 154 carries for 730 yards and 2 TD
• Receiving – 49 receptions for 472 yards and 0 TD

The touchdowns were obviously down (he had 15 total TD over his first two seasons), but so was the production from Hill (he averaged just 3.6 YPC in ’15).  Could those struggles lead to an expanded role for Bernard in ’16?  At the very least he appears primed for a bigger role in the passing game, thanks to the offseason departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu and the injury to Tyler Eifert.

They also could utilize both Bernard and Hill in the backfield together, as previously hinted by the team’s website.  One way or another it appears likely that Bernard is in store for an expanded role in the offense this season.  Given where he’s going in drafts, that makes him well worth targeting (especially in PPR formats).

Duke Johnson – Cleveland Browns
Current Average ADP – 79.2

Johnson wasn’t given many opportunities in his rookie season, at least on the ground, as he had 104 carries for 379 yards and 0 TD.  He was a force in the passing game, though, with 61 receptions for 534 yards and 2 TD.  Now with a new regime in place, is it possible that he’s given the chance to be “the man”?  With Isaiah Crowell all that stands between him and the chance, it’s certainly not out of the question.

Remember prior to being drafted NFL.com described him by saying:

“One of the most explosive runners in college football during his time at Miami, Johnson doesn’t need much of a crease to make defenses pay. His explosive quickness and elusiveness should help him adapt quickly to NFL speed. His feel and courage as a one-cut runner should earn him instant playing time.”

He’s going to play a significant role in the passing game, even with the return of Josh Gordon, and that alone is going to give him significant value.  With the potential to be so much more than that, there’s a lot to like.  Could his current ADP be slightly early?  Perhaps, but the upside is tremendous.  If he slips any further down the draft, don’t hesitate to pounce on him.

Sources – ESPN, NFL.com, Fantasy Pros