Two-Start Pitchers 2016:September 5-11: Are There Any Gambles Worth Taking?

by Ray Kuhn

This is it… This is what we prepare for and work for all season. September is upon us and the season is in the home stretch. Let’s take a look at who is taking the mound twice this week, as at this point in the season you are looking for every advantage you can find to gain any ground at all in the standings. Just be careful, because a large portion of these options don’t exact elicit much confidence from owners:

Tier One:

1. Chris Sale – Chicago White Sox – vs. Detroit; vs. Kansas City
2. Corey Kluber – Cleveland Indians – vs. Houston; at Minnesota
3. Cole Hamels – Texas Rangers – at Seattle; at LA Angels
4. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners – vs. Texas; at Oakland

Tier Two:

1. Masahiro Tanaka – New York Yankees – vs. Toronto; vs. Tampa Bay
2. Zack Greinke – Arizona Diamondbacks – at LA Dodgers; vs. San Francisco
3. Kyle Hendricks – Chicago Cubs – at Milwaukee; at Houston
4. Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals – at Pittsburgh; vs. Milwaukee
5. Dallas Keuchel – Houston Astros – at Cleveland; vs. Chicago Cubs

Tier Three:

1. Drew Pomeranz – Boston Red Sox – at San Diego; at Toronto
2. Matt Moore – San Francisco Giants – at Colorado; at Arizona
3. Bartolo Colon – New York Mets – at Cincinnati; at Atlanta

Tier Four:

1. Luke Weaver – St. Louis Cardinals – at Pittsburgh; vs. Milwaukee
2. Brandon Finnegan – Cincinnati Reds – vs. New York Mets; at Pittsburgh
3. Matt Boyd – Detroit Tigers – at Chicago White Sox; vs. Baltimore
4. Tyler Anderson – Colorado Rockies – vs. San Francisco; at San Diego
5. Mike Fiers – Houston Astros – at Cleveland; vs. Chicago Cubs
6. James Paxton – Seattle Mariners – vs. Texas; at Oakland
7. R.A. Dickey – Toronto Blue Jays – at New York Yankees; vs. Boston
8. Josh Tomlin – Cleveland Indians – vs. Houston; at Minnesota

Tier Five:

1. Chad Kuhl – Pittsburgh Pirates – vs. St. Louis; vs. Cincinnati
2. Matt Wisler – Atlanta Braves – at Washington; vs. New York Mets
3. Ryan Vogelsong – Pittsburgh Pirates – vs. St. Louis; vs. Cincinnati
4. Zach Davies – Milwaukee Brewers – vs. Chicago Cubs; at St. Louis Cardinals
5. Chad Bettis – Colorado Rockies – vs. San Francisco; at San Diego
6. Luis Cessa – New York Yankees – vs. Toronto; vs. Tampa Bay
7. Ubaldo Jimenez – Baltimore Orioles – at Tampa Bay; at Detroit
8. Edinson Volquez – Kansas City Royals – at Minnesota; at Chicago White Sox
9. Jarad Eickhoff – Philadelphia Phillies – at Miami; at Washington

Tier Six:

1. Robert Stephenson – Cincinnati Reds – vs. New York Mets; at Pittsburgh
2. Jered Weaver – LA Angels – at Oakland; vs. Texas
3. Martin Perez – Texas Rangers – at Seattle; at LA Angels
4. Matt Andriese – Tampa Bay Rays – vs. Baltimore; at New York Yankees
5. Adam Morgan – Philadelphia Phillies – at Miami; at Washington
6. Jake Esch – Miami Marlins – vs. Philadelphia; vs. LA Dodgers
7. Ross Detwiler – Oakland A’s – vs. LA Angels; vs. Seattle
8. Jarred Cosart – San Diego Padres – vs. Boston; vs. Colorado
9. Pat Dean – Minnesota Twins – vs. Kansas City; vs. Cleveland
10. Paul Clemens – San Diego Padres – vs. Boston; vs. Colorado

Notes:

• There is no disputing that this season has been a challenging one for Dallas Keuchel, as the heavy workload from his Cy Young winning season appeared to have caught up with him. As of late  it appeared that things were turning around. Ten of his last 12 outings have been quality starts, and Keuchel saw his ERA drop from 4.80 in the first half to 3.94 in the second. After allowing a .269 batting average against in the first half of the season, that has also dropped; to  .230. In his last two starts, Keuchel allowed four runs in 15 innings of work while striking out 11 batters against just two walks. While he did scatter nine hits in his most recent start start (last Sunday) against Tampa Bay, he expressed optimism after picking up his ninth victory of the season. Instead word came later in the week that the Astros would be pushing the southpaw back a day or two due to fatigue after being scheduled to start Friday. That then turned into Tuesday, which sets Keuchel up to start twice this week. The rest will likely prove to be beneficial.
• Whether Brandon Finnegan sticks in the rotation or ends up in the bullpen is still up for debate, but he is certainly making his case for the former. Over his last seven starts Finnegan has seen his ERA drop from 4.68 to 4.19, with six of those outings being quality starts. He also saw his WHIP go from 1.42 to 1.32 with 46 strikeouts in 43.1 innings, as he is clearly finding his groove. Despite the recent success Finnegan has been the beneficiary of a .248 BABIP, as evidenced by his 5.25 FIP, which has to at least put a little doubt in your mind. At the same time it is hard to argue with the recent string of success, which gives him some value.
• Injuries have struck the Cardinals pretty seriously this season, and as usual they dipped into their seemingly endless reserve of young players. This time that brought us Luke Weaver, who was their first round selection in 2014. Prior to his promotion he had a 1.30 ERA in 13 starts between Double-A and Triple-A, with a 0.93 WHIP and 92 strikeouts in 83 innings. After struggling, and you can use that term loosely (five earned runs in nine innings), Weaver has wasted little time in adjusting to the Majors. In his next two starts he allowed a total of 4 R in 12 innings while striking out 17 batters against 8 H and 4 BB. The pedigree and talent is here and Weaver could prove to be nice addition down the stretch.
• Just when it looked like James Paxton was figuring it out, he ended up on the disabled list. Then two starts into his return he tore a finger nail, for the second time in two seasons. Paxton remained in the game after it happened, but he was limited to fastballs and change-ups. All that stands in the way of him taking the mound twice this week, is how his fake fingernail holds up through a bullpen session. However, if he does get through that fine and starts on Tuesday, there has to be some concern about whether he will be able to throw his slider or curveball and its effectiveness. Paxton makes his first start of the week at home, where he has a 3.25 this season, and his second start comes in Oakland. The production has been there with a 3.83 ERA and 8.09 strikeouts per nine innings, but the metrics say he could be even better. Paxton has been able to pitch through a .349 BABIP, and his 3.04 FIP says more success is on the way. Just be sure to monitor his status prior to roster lock.
• Next up for the Yankees and their caravan of young players is Luis Cessa. If the Yankees have any hope of truly contending for the Wild Card, they are going to need the young right-hander to continue his success. Cessa is working on a streak of three straight quality starts. After shutting out the Angels over six innings, he limited the Orioles and Royals to three runs each in six innings. Cessa allowed just one walk in each of his three starts while striking out 12 batters and allowing 14 hits. So far this season, in 36.2 innings (his previous eight outings came in relief) he has a 4.17 ERA. However, things could be much worse as he has benefited from a .204 BABIP, which has led to a 5.99 FIP. Against the Rays I would be fine taking my chances, but his start against Toronto does bring some concern.