Profile image
By Roto Professor - Baseball
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:

Will The Real Jake Lamb Please Stand Up?

Monday, October 17, 2016 4:45
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

After being among the biggest stories in the first half of 2016, the Diamondbacks’ Jake Lamb had a notable disappearance after the All-Star Break.  For many he became a goat, as fantasy owners stuck with him hoping that he could rekindle his first half glory.  Obviously that resurgence simply never came:

First 289 .291 20 61 49 3
Second 234 .197 9 30 32 3

There are two key numbers that embrace the falloff, and you have to wonder if the strong first half led to a change in approach:

Line Drives – 20.5% to 13.5%
His groundball rate was fairly consistent, so what happened was the line drives instead changed to fly balls (33.8% to 40.5%).  Sure it’s not an outrageous number, but did the strong first half lead to him swinging for the fences a bit more?

He was more aggressive at the plate (12.9% SwStr%, 30.3% O-Swing%), which also feeds into this thought.  It led to an increase in strikeouts (24.6% to 27.5%), and obviously the diminished line drive rate (which helped him to a poor .240 BABIP) and increased strikeout rate led to his abysmal average.

Home Run/Fly Ball – 28.2% to 13.6%
Was the first half mark ever truly believable?  Among qualified hitters that mark actually led the league, so we always had to expect some type of a regression to come.  His home ballpark should help him maintain some of his power:

  • Home – 19
  • Road – 10

Getting to play at Coors Field multiple times per year doesn’t hurt either (he had 3 HR there).  That said, it’s hard to imagine him as a 35+ HR hitter (the pace he set in the first half).

Is there hope that he fixes the issue in the offseason?  We’d like to think so, especially after he posted a 22.7% line drive rate in ’15.  Hopefully a change in the coaching staff can help get in his ear and get him back to doing what actually made him successful.  That would still give him obvious value, as a .280-.290 hitter with 20ish HR, but that’s likely a best case scenario for him.  Hopefully he gets there, but don’t acquire him this offseason expecting one of the premier power hitters in the game.

Sources – Fangraphs, CBS Sports


We encourage you to Share our Reports, Analyses, Breaking News and Videos. Simply Click your Favorite Social Media Button and Share.

Report abuse


Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories



Top Global


Top Alternative




Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.