2017 Rankings: Top 15 Second Baseman (Don’t Overvalue Brian Dozier & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Second base was once viewed as a shallow positon, but no longer.  Not only has there been an infusion of young talent, but there are numerous top players who have eligibility at other positions (like Trea Turner, Matt Carpenter and Daniel Murphy).  That versatility adds additional value while expanding the depth of the high quality options.

Who are the best options available?  Who could be overvalued?  Let’s take a look:

1. Jose Altuve – Houston Astros
2. Trea Turner – Washington Nationals
3. Robinson Cano – Seattle Mariners
4. Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Ian Kinsler – Detroit Tigers
6. Dee Gordon – Miami Marlins
7. Daniel Murphy – Washington Nationals
8. Brian Dozier – Minnesota Twins
9. Rougned Odor – Texas Rangers
10. Jean Segura – Seattle Mariners
11. Jason Kipnis – Cleveland Indians
12. D.J. LeMahieu – Colorado Rockies
13. Logan Forsythe – Tampa Bay Rays
14. Devon Travis – Toronto Blue Jays
15. Neil Walker – New York Mets
 

Thoughts:

• Devon Travis has the upside of a Top 10 option, the problem is he never seems to be healthy.  When he’s on the field he shows just how good he can be, hitting .301 with 19 HR and 7 SB over 670 PA in the past two seasons.  While the average may be unsustainable, given his .354 BABIP and 28.7% Hard%, the power is real and he could easily steal 10-12 bases.  In other words we’re talking the potential to go .280/20/10.  What’s not to like about that?
• We all know Brian Dozier had a tremendous second half (.291, 28 HR, 56 RBI, 57 R, 11 SB).  The biggest surprises were his power and average, both of which could regress.  For the power he benefited from a likely unsustainable 25.5% HR/FB (12.7% for his career), and a drop there alone would cause his average to fall.  Throw in the risk of swinging for the fences (49.1% fly ball rate, 24.4% strikeout rate in the second half) and the risk increases.  Don’t make the mistake of paying for what he did, as opposed to what he’s likely to do.
• Logan Forsythe is a player that everyone seems to overlook, and maybe part of that is due to playing in Tampa Bay.  Sooner or later people are going to take notice,  as he’s hit at least 17 HR in back-to-back seasons (and had 20 HR in 127 games in ’16).  As a fallback option, there’s a lot to like.
• We took a look at Jean Segura’s potential value, now that he’ll call Seattle home (which you can read by clicking here).  At the end of the day, while there will be a regression it likely would’ve come if he was traded or not.  There’s still plenty of appeal, especially with his speed, that shouldn’t be overlooked.
• We recently declared D.J. LeMahieu a potential overdraft (you can read the post by clicking here) and wouldn’t mind bypassing him to select someone like Travis or Forsythe later in your draft.

Source – Fangraphs

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Make sure to check out our other Early 2017 Rankings: