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ACC Bubble Analysis for January 12, 2017

Thursday, January 12, 2017 20:06
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(Before It's News)

bubble5

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(7) Florida State (16-1) (4-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (3) Florida, * (10) Minnesota, * (40) Illinois, (97) Nicholls State, (98) Iona, * (16) Virginia, * (33) Wake Forest, * (13) Duke, * (17) Virginia, * (45) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles as a 1 seed? Sure why not. They are deep, athletic, and can score. Nobody has played more consistently this year in the ACC. Noles looked great against good Virginia Tech and Duke teams at home. Big games at UNC and Notre Dame at home this week.

(8) Louisville (14-3) (2-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (31) Purdue, (84) Witchita State, (60) Texas Southern,  * (6) Kentucky, * (26) Pittsburgh, (96) Indiana

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Solid week for Louisville as they beat Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. If the Cards can beat Duke and Clemson at home this week, they may get a look as a 1 seed.

(23) Notre Dame (15-2) (4-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (47) Northwestern, (77) Colorado, *(26) Pittsburgh, * (8) Louisville, * (36) Clemson, (69) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Mike Brey is one of the most underappreciated coaches in the country. The Irish have a really good team. They beat Clemson and won on the road at Miami last week. This week are tough road games at Virginia Tech and Florida State – a split would be fine.

(16) North Carolina (15-3) (3-1) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (59) Oklahoma State, (69) Davidson, * (48) Wisconsin, (78) Chattanooga, (71) Tennessee, (68) Monmouth , * (33) Wake Forest, * (36) Clemson, * (37) NC State

Bad Losses – (144) Georgia Tech

Notes – I think with UNC is on they have the highest ceiling of any ACC team, and they are starting to play well. They have a huge game with FSU, and they also host Syracuse this week.

(13) Duke (14-2) (2-2) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (3) Florida, *(25) Michigan State,  * (46) Rhode Island, (67) Penn State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke is a distracted looking team without leadership despite the good record. FSU ran them out of Tallahassee. If they lose at Louisville, they are falling outside being a top 4 seed.

(17) Virginia (12-3) (2-2) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (65) Providence, (85) Ohio State, * (8) Louisville, * (33) Wake Forest, (62) California

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia won their only game this week against Wake Fores. I’m still trying to decide just how good the Cavaliers are this year. Are they merely a tournament team, or can they reach the Final 4? They have games at Clemson and BC this week. Road games in the ACC are brutal anywhere.

(45) Virginia Tech (13-3) (2-2) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (48) Ole Miss, (87) Michigan, * (49) Nebraska, * (13) Duke, (98) New Mexico

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Hokies are good, but not quite to the level of the top of the ACC. Their goal is to get the NCAA tournament, and they are on track for that. A sweep this week of Georgia Tech and Notre Dame at home would get the Hokies out of the dreaded 8-9 game.

Bubble But In

NONE

Bubble But Out

(69) Miami (11-4) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (58) Stanford, * (37) NC State

Bad Losses – (149) Syracuse

Notes – Miami had an awful week. They lost at Syracuse, then couldn’t rebound at home at lost to Notre Dame. The Canes better at least get a split in their  road games at Pittsburgh and Wake Forest this week.

(26) Pittsburgh (12-5) (1-3) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (30) Maryland, (67) Penn State, (74) Marshall, (66) Marquette, * (17) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (201) Duquesne, (149) Syracuse

Notes – I can’t put an ACC team in the tourney that’s 2 games under .500 in the conference right now. Miami is at home for Pittsburgh, then the Panthers play reeling NC State on the road. Pittsburgh needs a sweep to get back in the Big Dance.

(36) Clemson (11-5) (1-3) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  *(24) UNC-Wilmington, * (32) Wake Forest,  (91) Alabama, (52) Nebraska, * (38) Georgia, * (32) South Carolina

Bad Losses – (168) Oklahoma, (144) Georgia Tech

Notes – Only Clemson’s non-conference wins are keeping it on the bubble. This team is in trouble. The loss to Georgia Tech is a crushing one. If Clemson doesn’t at least split with Virginia at home, and Louisville on the road this week, they’ll be in serious serious trouble.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(33) Wake Forest (10-7) (1-4) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (56) College of Charleston

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Wake Forest has lost 4 of their last 5 games. Miami is this week at home, and the Deacs are running out of time to make a move.

(37) NC State (12-5) (1-3) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (45) Virginia Tech, (73) St. Joseph

Bad Losses – (173) Boston College

Notes – The Wolfpack played maybe the worst basketball of any team in the ACC last week. There was 50+ loss at UNC, then the Wolfpack backed it up with a loss at Boston College. A sweep of Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at home is highly advisable. This team has talent, but is playing poorly right now.

(144) Georgia Tech (10-6) (2-2) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (28) VCU, * (16) North Carolina * (36) Clemson

Bad Losses – * (108) Ohio

Notes – Georgia Tech is 2-2 in the ACC after beating Clemson at home this week. Josh Pastner is coaching his tail off getting this team to be competitive. They head to NC State and Virginia Tech this week.

(173) Boston College (9-8) (2-2)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (65) Providence, (83) Auburn, * (37) NC State

Bad Losses – (121) Richmond, * (312) Hartford, * (137) Harvard, (130) Fairfield

Notes – BC isn’t going to the NCAA Tournament, but they are improved and dangerous at home winning their last 2 home ACC games over Syracuse and NC State. They head to Syracuse, and host Virginia this week.

(149) Syracuse (10-7) (2-2) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (68) Monmouth, * (26) Pittsburgh, (69) Miami

Bad Losses – * (141) UCONN, * (143) St. Johns, * (173) Boston College

Notes – Syracuse is playing better, but they aren’t a tournament team. Boston College is a chance for a home win, and then there is a tough game at UNC this week.

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Source: http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2017/01/12/acc-bubble-analysis-for-january-12-2017/

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