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ACC Bubble Analysis for February 16, 2017

Thursday, February 16, 2017 20:34
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(Before It's News)

bubble5

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(5) Louisville (21-5) (9-4) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (19) Purdue, * (43) Witchita State,  * (10) Kentucky, (60) Pittsburgh, (91) Indiana, * (12) Duke, (78) Georgia Tech, (51) Clemson, (60) Pittsburgh,* (50) Miami, (79) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Solid week for Louisville after beating Miami and winning on the road at Syracuse. The Cards are starting to get healthy too. They host Virginia and play at UNC. If they win both I’m making them a #1 seed next week.

(8) North Carolina (22-5) (10-3) Projected Seed 2 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (28) Oklahoma State, * (25) Wisconsin, (83) Chattanooga, * (46) Tennessee, * (48) Monmouth , * (38) Wake Forest, * (51) Clemson, * (11) Florida State, * (44) Virginia Tech, (60) Pittsburgh, (79) Syracuse, * (24) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – None

Notes – UNC destroyed NC State this past week. They have Virginia and Louisville at home this week. The Heels can make a push for a #1 seed with 2 wins.

(12) Duke (21-5) (9-4) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (9) Florida, * (42) Michigan State,  (59) Rhode Island, (77) Penn State, (78) Georgia Tech, (50) Miami, * (24) Notre Dame, * (38) Wake Forest, (60) Pittsburgh, * (8) North Carolina, (15) Virginia, (51) Clemson

Bad Losses – (109) NC state

Notes – Duke is on fire now, and freshman Jayson Tatum is really starting to play well. Duke beat Clemson, and had a very impressive win at Virginia. This upcoming week is a home game with Wake Forest and a road visit to Syracuse.

(11) Florida State (21-5) (9-4) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (9) Florida, * (23) Minnesota, (72) Illinois, * (15) Virginia, * (38) Wake Forest, * (12) Duke, * (34) Virginia Tech, * (24) Notre Dame, * (5) Louisville, (82) Winthrop, (50) Miami, (51) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The loss at Notre Dame keeps FSU from being a top 2 seed. This week is a game at Pittsburgh then a home game with Boston College.

(24) Notre Dame (20-7) (9-5) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (39) Northwestern, (60) Pittsburgh, * (5) Louisville,  (51) Clemson, (50) Miami, * (34) Virginia Tech, (79) Syracuse, * (38) Wake Forest, * (11) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame is getting hot at the right time. They’ve won 3 games in a row including FSU and BC this past week. This week is a game at reeling NC State.

(15) Virginia (18-7) (8-5) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (57) Providence, (65) Ohio State, * (5) Louisville, * (38) Wake Forest, * (32) California, (51) Clemson, * (24) Notre Dame, (78) Georgia Tech,  * (34) Virginia Tech, * (5) Louisville

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia has suddenly lost 3 of their last 4 games. They lost at Virginia Tech and at home to Duke. This week is a game at UNC, then Miami at home. If Virginia loses both they could approach the 8-9 game.

(34) Virginia Tech (18-7) (7-6) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (66) Ole Miss, (58) Michigan, (84) Nebraska, * (12) Duke, (74) New Mexico, (78) Georgia Tech, (51) Clemson, (79) Syracuse, * (15) Duke, (60) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (109) NC State

Notes – It was a great week for Virginia Tech. The Hokies beat Virginia, and then won at Pittsburgh. Chris Clarke suffered a year-ending injury, but the Hokies still took care of business. Virginia Tech plays at Louisville, the hosts Clemson. The Hokies are fine a with a split.

(50) Miami (17-8) (7-6) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (75) Stanford, (60) Pittsburgh, * (8) UNC, * (34) Virginia Tech, (78) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Canes split this week with Louisville and Georgia Tech. They are safely in right now, but can’t afford worse that a split against Clemson and Virginia this week. If they lose both, it’s back to the bubble.

Bubble But In

(78) Syracuse (16-11) (8-6) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (48) Monmouth, (60) Pittsburgh, (50) Miami, * (38) Wake Forest, * (11) Florida State, * (15) Virginia, * (51) Clemson

Bad Losses – (121) UCONN, (118) St. Johns, * (203) Boston College

Notes – It was a bad week for Syracuse. The lost at Pitt and at home to Louisville. They losses nearly dropped the Orange out of the field, and they are barely in now. Syracuse can do no worse than a split with Georgia Tech and Duke this week.

Bubble But Out 

(78) Georgia Tech (15-11) (6-7) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (27) VCU, * (8) North Carolina, (51) Clemson, * (11) Florida State, * (24) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – (108) Ohio

Notes – Georgia Tech split this week with BC and Miami. The Yellow Jackets need to get to .500 in the conference. This week may define Georgia Tech’s NCAA chances. Beating Syracuse and NC State at home are both must wins.

(38) Wake Forest (15-11) (6-8) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (68) College of Charleston, (50) Miami, (93) Bucknell, (78) Georgia Tech, (98) Richmond

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Wake Forest beat NC State this past week, but lost to Clemson. The Deacs need a signature win. They go to Duke and host Pittsburgh this week. Like Georgia Tech, Wake Forest has to get to .500 in the conference.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(109) NC State (14-13) (3-11) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (34) Virginia Tech, (60) Pittsburgh, * (12) Duke

Bad Losses – (203) Boston College

Notes – The Wolfpack’s NCAA hopes are finished and they just fired their coach. They’ve have become a bad team that has appeared to quit on the season. They host Notre Dame and then head to Georgia Tech.

(51) Clemson (14-11) (4-9) 

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins –  *(44) UNC-Wilmington, * (38) Wake Forest,  (69) Alabama, (84) Nebraska, (52) Georgia, * (26) South Carolina, (60) Pittsburgh, (78) Georgia Tech, * (38) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – (174) Oklahoma

Notes – Clemson has a 9 top 100 wins. That’s good, but they can’t get closer to the bubble without being at least only a couple of games below .500 in the ACC. They play at Miami and Virginia Tech this week. They have to win at least 1 to have any chance at the NCAAs.

(60) Pittsburgh (14-12) (3-10)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (18) Maryland, (77) Penn State, (81) Marquette, * (15) Virginia, (79) Syracuse

Bad Losses – * (223) Duquesne, (109) NC State

Notes – Pittsburgh knocked off Syracuse this past week, but lost to Virginia Tech. They are still good enough to play spoiler. This week is FSU at home, then a road game at Wake Forest.

(203) Boston College (9-18) (2-12)

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins – (57) Providence, (71) Auburn, (79) Syracuse, (90) Towson

Bad Losses – * (320) Hartford,  (147) Harvard, (198) Fairfield, (249) Nicholls State

Notes – Boston College has lost 10 games in a row. This week the play at Florida State.

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Source: http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2017/02/16/acc-bubble-analysis-for-february-16-2017/

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