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ACC Bubble Analysis for February 9, 2017

Thursday, February 9, 2017 20:40
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(Before It's News)

bubble5

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(5) Louisville (19-5) (7-4) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (20) Purdue, (57) Witchita State,  * (12) Kentucky, (56) Pittsburgh, (76) Indiana, * (19) Duke, (77) Georgia Tech, (55) Clemson, (56) Pittsburgh, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville was down a handful of scholarship players against UVa so the loss isn’t a true reflection of the Cards. The problem is it still cost Louisville a #1 seed for this week. They host Miami this week, and then head to surging Syracuse.

(4) North Carolina (21-5) (9-3) Projected Seed 2 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (30) Oklahoma State, * (17) Wisconsin, (84) Chattanooga, * (37) Tennessee, * (46) Monmouth , * (29) Wake Forest, * (55) Clemson, (96) NC State, * (6) Florida State, * (44) Virginia Tech, (56) Pittsburgh, (62) Syracuse, * (28) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Heels beat Notre Dame this week, and lost at Duke. There is no shame in that week, but the Heels needed to beat Duke to get to the 1 line. The Heels only game this week is against reeling NC State. We call that a trap game.

(14) Virginia (18-5) (8-3) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (73) Providence, (69) Ohio State, * (5) Louisville, * (29) Wake Forest, * (36) California, (55) Clemson, * (28) Notre Dame, (77) Georgia Tech,  * (44) Virginia Tech, * (5) Louisville, (85) Yale

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia lost at Syracuse, but beat Louisville this past week. They hold as a 3 seed. A sweep of Virginia Tech, then Duke at home will move the Cavs back to the 2 line.

(6) Florida State (21-4) (9-3) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (7) Florida, * (22) Minnesota, (54) Illinois, * (14) Virginia, * (29) Wake Forest, * (19) Duke, * (44) Virginia Tech, * (28) Notre Dame, * (5) Louisville, (89) Winthrop, (51) Miami, (55) Clemson, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Don’t look now the Noles are starting to roll again. They had a couple of blowout wins over NC State and Clemson. This week are road games at Notre Dame and Pittsburgh.

(19) Duke (19-5) (7-4) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (7) Florida, * (48) Michigan State,  * (35) Rhode Island, (79) Penn State, (77) Georgia Tech, (51) Miami, * (28) Notre Dame, * (29) Wake Forest, (56) Pittsburgh, * (4) North Carolina

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke is getting hot. The beat Pitt and UNC this past week. They host Clemson and then head to UVa for a huge one. If they win both, they’ll into top 3 seed category.

(28) Notre Dame (18-7) (7-5) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (42) Northwestern, (56) Pittsburgh, * (5) Louisville,  (55) Clemson, (51) Miami, * (44) Virginia Tech, (62) Syracuse, * (29) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame lost at North Carolina, but beat Wake Forest. To move up further, they need to take care of FSU at home and BC on the road.

(51) Miami (16-7) (6-5) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (65) Stanford, (96) NC State, (56) Pittsburgh, * (4) UNC, * (44) Virginia Tech, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Winning at NC State and beating Virginia Tech at home moves the Canes into solid NCAA position for this week. This week will be  a game at Louisville, then the Canes host Georgia Tech.

(44) Virginia Tech (16-7) (5-6) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  (72) Ole Miss, (75) Michigan, (87) Nebraska, * (19) Duke, (83) New Mexico, (70) Georgia Tech, (55) Clemson, (62) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Hokies are getting awfully close to the bubble after losing at Miami. The Hokies really need to beat UVa at home to solidfy their resume. A game at Pitt will be tricky this week. If the Hokies lose both, they fall out of the field.

(62) Syracuse (16-9) (8-4) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (46) Monmouth, (56) Pittsburgh, (51) Miami, * (29) Wake Forest, * (6) Florida State, (96) NC State, * (14) Virginia, * (55) Clemson

Bad Losses – (142) UCONN, (126) St. Johns, * (196) Boston College

Notes – The Orange are on fire. They beat Virginia at home and then went on the road at defeated Clemson on a last second shot. Syracuse isn’t even on the bubble now. A game at Pitt then a home game with Louisville are upcoming.

Bubble But In

NONE

Bubble But Out 

(77) Georgia Tech (14-10) (5-6) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (27) VCU, * (4) North Carolina, (55) Clemson, (96) NC State, * (6) Florida State, * (28) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – (128) Ohio

Notes – Georgia Tech just misses the field after losing to Wake Forest, and beating Tusculum. They have to beat BC at home, because a road game at Miami is after that.

(29) Wake Forest (14-10) (5-7) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (53) College of Charleston, (51) Miami, (90) Bucknell, (96) NC State, (77) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Wake Forest beat fellow bubble team Georgia Tech, but couldn’t win at Notre Dame. The Deacs still lack a signature win, and that’s a problem. If Wake Forest can beat NC State and Clemson this week, that will get them in the field next week.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(96) NC State (14-11) (3-9) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  (44) Virginia Tech, (56) Pittsburgh, * (19) Duke

Bad Losses – (198) Boston College

Notes – The Wolfpack’s NCAA changes are about cooked after another rough week losing to both Miami and FSU. They head to Wake Forest and host UNC, where the Wolfpack are now playing spoiler.

(55) Clemson (13-10) (3-8) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  *(39) UNC-Wilmington, * (29) Wake Forest,  (68) Alabama, (87) Nebraska, (63) Georgia, * (24) South Carolina, (56) Pittsburgh, (77) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – (158) Oklahoma

Notes – Clemson getting swept by FSU and Syracuse was crushing. Brad Brownell is on the hot seat, and now the Tigers head to red hot Duke. They also host Wake Forest this week.

(56) Pittsburgh (13-11) (2-9)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (23) Maryland, (79) Penn State, (74) Marquette, * (14) Virginia, (85) Yale

Bad Losses – * (220) Duquesne

Notes – Pittsburgh is actually playing competitively. They pushed Duke in Durham and won at BC. With Syracuse and Virginia Tech at home, Pitt could knock off either and maybe both.

(196) Boston College (9-16) (2-10)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (73) Providence, (60) Auburn,  (96) NC State, (62) Syracuse, (97) Towson

Bad Losses – (108) Richmond, * (333) Hartford,  (185) Harvard, (207) Fairfield, (229) Nicholls State

Notes – BC hasn’t won since January 11. I’m actually a little surprised they haven’t been able to steal another ACC game. The head to Georgia Tech and then host Notre Dame this week.

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Source: http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2017/02/09/acc-bubble-analysis-for-february-9-2017/

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