by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
It’s easy to overlook the Padres’ Ryan Schimpf, who was viewed as a relative non-prospect entering 2016. Need led to opportunity, and it’s possible that Schimpf never looks back. Just look at the numbers he was able to post:
276 At Bats
.217 Batting Average (60 Hits)
20 Home Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.336 On Base Percentage
.533 Slugging Percentage
.260 Batting Average on Balls in Play
His age (he’ll turn 29-years old in April) and batting average make him easy to overlook, as well as the thinking that he can’t maintain this type of power pace. They are all fair concerns, albeit ones that aren’t necessarily accurate.
In regards to his age, would he be the first player to develop later in their career? He’s not old and given some of his production in the minors you could argue that he deserved an opportunity earlier. That argument is not one that should hold much water.
His on-the-field production, though? Let’s take a look at the two concerning numbers:
Playing half his games in Petco Park it would be justified to expect a regression. He has hit 20+ HR every year since 2012, so it would be unwise to expect it to simply disappear (35 total HR in ’16). While he did hit for more power on the road, you can also point to his HR/FB at home as being a more believable mark:
Then you have his fly ball rate, which sat at an almost unbelievable 64.9%. He’s going to be an extreme fly ball hitter, that’s something he has shown throughout his minor league career (0.62 GO/AO, compared to a 0.38 in the Majors last season), but a few less fly balls would be a fair expectation.
A lower HR/FB + Fewer Groundballs = Fewer Home Runs
That’s not to say he’s going to disappear completely, but 25 over a full season is a better expectation than his 40+ HR pace he set a year ago.
The extreme fly ball approach and a drop in power is going to lead to further concerns for his batting average. That said his 31.8% strikeout rate isn’t indicative of his upside, and while his 11.3% SwStr% is elevated it doesn’t support that bloated of a mark. He showed an ability to draw a walk (25.5% O-Swing%, 12.7% walk rate), further helping us to expect an improvement. It’s going to remain part of his game, but 20-24% is a better expectation (he was at 17.4% at Triple-A prior to his recall).
Throw in an improvement on a .260 BABIP, even with the extreme fly ball rate, and you get something in the .250+ range. It’s not going to be a great mark, but it also won’t be a crippling one.
Assuming he wins the job (which you can say isn’t a given), Schimpf should be in the same range as Jonathan Schoop (.267 with 25 HR in ’16, though with the potential for a lower average). We all know that has value, with Schoop currently being the 15th second baseman being selected in NFBC drafts compared to 25th for Schimpf. At that price point, grabbing Schimpf makes tremendous sense.
Sources – Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, MILB.com, STATS
*** Order Rotoprofessor’s 2017 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for Just $7.00 By Clicking Here!! Not only will you get all the help you need to dominate your fantasy draft, but you will also be entered to win a Noah Syndergaard autographed baseball, complete with “Thor” inscription! ***
Make sure to check out our other Early 2017 Rankings:
Raw - US-South Korean Live-Fire Exercises and North Korea Updates
With All Eyes on the War This Wikileaks Bombshell Is Purposefully Ignored! Major Distraction!!!
Totalitarian Left Celebrates Their ‘Pyrrhic Victory’ (Video)
The YouTube Monopsony
Trump to NRA: “8 Yr Assault on 2nd Amendment Is Over” (Video)
Democrats Deliver Massive Knockout Blow to Republicans (Video)
America Is Under Attack by These 187 Groups Funded by George Soros (Video)
Does Your Child Suffer From RAD: Reactive Attachment Disorder (Videos)
Why Does Jared Kushner Look Like He Is Getting Ready To Play The Role Of The Biblical Antichrist?
Staged ISIS Bombing Video. If This Doesn't Wake You Up, Nothing Will.
Rampaging Wild Boars Kill 3 ISIS Terrorists in Iraq
Russian Military Ship Sinks After Collision
Thug Tries To Rob Store, But He Should Have Looked Over His Shoulder
Hackers Exploited Word Flaw for Months While Microsoft Investigated
Major Leak at Oroville Damn Detected
Pastor Steve Cioccolanti Explains Sheol [Hell] and Seoul from the Israeli Bible
Israel Bombs Road To Damascus..Airport
Whoa! Ghost Spotted by Mayor of Salem, Home of Salem Witch Trials (Video)
Gotta See: Watch Clerk Keep Cool as Thug Points Gun at His Face (Video)
Top Cardiologists: Saturated Fat Not the Cause of Heart Disease
Here’s the Creepy New AI-Enhanced $15k Robot Tons of Lonely Dudes Are Going to Have Sex with Soon
"Jack the Ripper" Was Winston Churchill's Father
The YouTube Monopsony
Critical Developing Situation! China Warns North Korea Is at a Critical Point (Video)
Cooler Heads Must Prevail! World Leaders Warn of Crisis - Situation Has Deteriorated! (Video)
Ancient Ruins on Earth - Matteo Ianneo Italian Researcher