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ACC Bubble Analysis for March 2, 2017

Thursday, March 2, 2017 19:52
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(Before It's News)

bubble5

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(5) North Carolina (25-6) (13-4) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (31) Oklahoma State, * (33) Wisconsin, (92) Chattanooga, (80) Tennessee, * (43) Monmouth , * (40) Wake Forest, * (60) Clemson, * (12) Florida State, * (36) Virginia Tech, (71) Pittsburgh, (79) Syracuse, * (23) Notre Dame, * (7) Louisville, * (16) Virginia, (71) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes – What are the odds North Carolina stays a #1  seed after the loss to Virginia? I’d say very good as long as they beat Duke Saturday night. If the Heels lose they’ll fall from the 1 line.

(7) Louisville (23-7) (11-6) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (20) Purdue, * (41) Witchita State,  * (8) Kentucky, (71) Pittsburgh, (93) Indiana, * (13) Duke, (94) Georgia Tech, (60) Clemson, (71) Pittsburgh,* (38) Miami, (79) Syracuse, * (36) Virginia Tech, (99) Indiana, (79) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Losing at Wake Forest likely costs Louisville a shot at a 1 seed. The Cards better shore up some of their recent defensive issues before tournament play begins. They get a tough Notre Dame team at home this week.

(13) Duke (23-7) (11-6) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (3) Florida, * (45) Michigan State,  * (44) Rhode Island, (95) Penn State, (94) Georgia Tech, * (38) Miami, * (23) Notre Dame, * (40) Wake Forest, (71) Pittsburgh, * (5) North Carolina, * (16) Virginia, (60) Clemson, * (40) Wake Forest, * (12) Florida State

Bad Losses – (119) NC state

Notes – In the pre-season Duke was a #1 team. They haven’t lived up to hype, but they are still a very dangerous team when they are on. They lost at Miami, but beat Florida State this past week. They close the season with North Carolina.

(12) Florida State (23-7) (11-6) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (3) Florida, * (18) Minnesota, (56) Illinois, * (16) Virginia, * (40) Wake Forest, * (13) Duke, * (36) Virginia Tech, * (23) Notre Dame, * (7) Louisville, (74) Winthrop, * (37) Miami, (60) Clemson, (60) Clemson

Bad Losses – (122) Temple

Notes – I won’t penalize for FSU for losing at Duke, so I’m leaving them as a 3 seed this week. They did beat Clemson on the road. They’ll host Miami this week. If they win, they’ll remain a 3 seed.

(23) Notre Dame (23-7) (12-5) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (46) Northwestern, (71) Pittsburgh, * (7) Louisville,  (60) Clemson, * (38) Miami, * (36) Virginia Tech, (79) Syracuse, * (40) Wake Forest, * (12) Florida State, (90) Iowa, (94) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame took care of Georgia Tech and Boston College this past week. If they beat Louisville, could they reach the 3 line? Maybe so…

(16) Virginia (20-9) (10-7) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (55) Providence, (66) Ohio State, * (7) Louisville, * (40) Wake Forest, (52) California, (60) Clemson, * (23) Notre Dame, (94) Georgia Tech,  * (36) Virginia Tech, * (7) Louisville,* (5) North Carolina, (90) Iowa

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia seems to have righted the ship with two wins over NC State and UNC last week. A favorable home game with Pittsburgh should have the Hoos looking at a 3 game winning streak heading to the ACC Tournament.

(36) Virginia Tech (21-8) (10-7) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (77) Ole Miss, * (47) Michigan, (88) Nebraska, * (13) Duke, (87) New Mexico, (94) Georgia Tech, (60) Clemson, (79) Syracuse, (71) Pittsburgh, * (16) Virginia, (60) Clemson, * (38) Miami

Bad Losses – (119) NC State

Notes – Good week for the Hokies as they beat BC and Miami. They’ll need to beat Wake Forest to stay out of the 8/9 game for next week.

(38) Miami (20-9) (10-7) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (73) Stanford, (71) Pittsburgh, * (5) UNC, * (36) Virginia Tech, (94) Georgia Tech, * (16) Virginia, (60) Clemson * (13) Duke

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Canes got a big win over Duke, but the loss to Virginia Tech keeps them in that 8/9 game. They head to Florida State this week.

Bubble But In

(40) Wake Forest (17-12) (8-9) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (64) College of Charleston, * (38) Miami, (72) Bucknell, (94) Georgia Tech, (81) Richmond, (71) Pittsburgh, * (7) Louisville

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Wake Forest finally had the week they’ve been waiting all year for. They beat Pittsburgh at home, but then got the ever important signature win they’ve been lacking with a victory over Louisville. If Wake Forest wins at Virginia Tech, they’ll be dancing.

(79) Syracuse (17-13) (9-8) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (43) Monmouth, (71) Pittsburgh, (38) Miami, * (40) Wake Forest, * (12) Florida State, * (16) Virginia, (60) Clemson, * (13) Duke

Bad Losses – (109) UCONN, (128) St. Johns, * (209) Boston College

Notes – If I had a last 4 in, Syracuse would be in it after losing to Louisville. They better beat Georgia Tech Saturday or they may end up on the wrong side of the bubble.

Bubble But Out 

(94) Georgia Tech (17-13) (8-9) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (22) VCU, * (5) North Carolina, (60) Clemson, * (12) Florida State, * (23) Notre Dame, (79) Syracuse, (71) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (120) Ohio, (119) NC State

Notes – We’ve been telling you for awhile Josh Pastner has been doing an incredible job at Georgia Tech this year, and he has the Jackets on the fringes of the NCAAs. Last week the Jackets lost at Notre Dame, but came back and beat Pittsburgh. They must find a way to win at Syracuse, or it’s going to take a deep ACC Tournament run to make the Big Dance.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(119) NC State (15-16) (4-14) 

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins –  * (36) Virginia Tech, (71) Pittsburgh, * (13) Duke, (94) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – * (209) Boston College

Notes – NC State’s disappointing regular season is over after losses to Virginia and Clemson. Next up is the ACC Tournament.

(60) Clemson (15-14) (5-12) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  *(37) UNC-Wilmington, * (40) Wake Forest,  (84) Alabama, (88) Nebraska, (51) Georgia, * (27) South Carolina, (71) Pittsburgh, (94) Georgia Tech, * (40) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – (161) Oklahoma

Notes – If Clemson had beat FSU, I could have at least given them an NCAA look. The victory over NC State isn’t enough to get Clemson near the bubble. This will be a season remembered as what could have been for Clemson. They host Boston College Saturday.

(71) Pittsburgh (15-15) (4-13)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins –  * (26) Maryland, (95) Penn State, (58) Marquette, * (16) Virginia, (79) Syracuse, * (12) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (240) Duquesne, (119) NC State

Notes – I tweeted this about Pitt last week, and that’s part of the reason their season has went downhill. The head to Virginia this week.

(209) Boston College (9-21) (2-15)

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins – (55) Providence, (91) Auburn, (79) Syracuse, (99) Towson

Bad Losses – * (326) Hartford,  (125) Harvard, * (176) Fairfield, * (243) Nicholls State

Notes – There were a couple of more losses for BC this week. This time to Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. I’m very surprised BC didn’t win a couple of more ACC games. This week is a game at Clemson.

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Source: http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2017/03/02/acc-bubble-analysis-for-march-2-2017/

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