by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
“Duffy says progress a little slow with heel, target to start playing in games has been pushed back from mid-March. Could impact opener” – per Marc Topkins via Twitter
Obviously this news puts the Rays’ Matt Duffy’s availability for Opening Day into serious doubt, and that will ultimately cause his draft day cost to fall. Of course with an average ADP of 329.40 you could argue that it can’t fall much further. Either way, he’s shaping up to be a potential steal and an under-the-radar option who can help lead you to a fantasy title.
Currently eligible at 3B, Duffy is expected to be the Rays’ starting shortstop once healthy. That positional flexibility alone helps add to his appeal, as he’ll be a prime candidate to fill a corner infield or middle infield hole in your lineup.
Duffy brings upside at the plate, despite hitting .258 with 5 HR and 8 SB over 366 PA in ’16. He’s only a year removed from a 12 HR/12 SB campaign for the Giants and there’s reason to believe that his production can increase across the board.
In regards to his average, Duffy showed he can make consistent contact with a 14.5% strikeout rate (6.7% SwStr%). Couple that with a 21.5% line drive rate and .290 BABIP and there’s every reason to believe in a rise in his average (think .280ish).
While Duffy is never likely to be a 25+ HR threat, the move away from San Francisco should provide an instant little boost to his power numbers. The 26-year old has added 44 doubles and 8 triples over 966 AB in the Majors, and at his age it’s easy to envision a few more of those finding their way over the fence. Again he’s not going to be an elite option, but even with the late start a 15+ HR campaign is believable.
Couple that with some speed (25 SB in ’13, 20 in ’14) and you get an intriguing bat who brings .280/15/15 potential. At a bargain basement cost, and adding flexibility to your lineup, the allure grows even more. That makes him a no-brainer addition as an end game selection.
Sources – Fangraphs, MILB.com
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Make sure to check out our 2017 Rankings:
|Starting Pitcher||#1-20 |02/27/17