Profile image
By Roto Professor - Baseball
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:

Readjusting Value: Should Sonny Gray’s Injury Drop Him Off Fantasy Radars?

Friday, March 10, 2017 10:19
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Prior to the news of his injury the outlook of Sonny Gray was not necessarily high.  In our most recent update of the Rotoprofessor Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide we had him ranked as the 51st starting pitcher.  That’s not to say that there wasn’t value, as he still is in line for a rebound when healthy.  In fact, here’s what we had to say about him:

“Injury limited him to 117.0 innings in ’16, and when he was on the mound he was horrendous (5.69 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).  While we expected a regression from his ’15 success, this was extreme.  Gray allowed a lot of home runs (1.38 HR/9) considering his home ballpark and groundball ways (53.9%) and he suffered from some poor luck (.319 BABIP, 63.9% strand rate, 18.7% line drive rate).  He’s not as good as he was in ’15 (2.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), but he’s also not this bad.  The answer should lie somewhere in the middle, and that holds value.”

However, when we factor in the missed time to open the year how does our outlook change?  Is he even worth drafting?

First, we have to try and figure out how much time he’s going to miss. The talk is that he’s going to be shutdown for at least three weeks, which means he won’t resume throwing until late in March. Since he isn’t stretched out, he’s then going to need time to work up to going 6+ innings (aka go through the Spring Training motions). You would think that, at best, that puts him out until the middle of April with the potential to miss the entire month. That’s assuming there isn’t a setback, which is always possible.

That means we are taking 3-6 starts away, and that obviously has a negative impact. The fact that he already brings limited strikeout stuff hinders him even further. He owns a career 7.59 K/9 and is coming off a season where he posted an 8.0% SwStr%. His slider is his best strikeout pitch (17.89% Whiff%), but it’s not a pitch he throws very often (11.21%).

Fewer starts for a limited strikeout pitcher…  That’s not a formula we like seeing. Throw in decent, but not spectacular, control (career 2.89 BB/9) and there isn’t much to love (even with an above average groundball rate in a favorable home ballpark).

In deeper formats he’s worth stashing, as he should be a solid option once healthy. However, in shallower formats you should be able to draft a pitcher with more upside over the long haul. Put him in the 60-70 range of starters (similarly valued to the likes of Ivan Nova), but without much upside. That means for most, he’s underwhelming at best and not a player to target.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

*** Order Rotoprofessor’s 2017 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for Just $7.00 By Clicking Here!!   Not only will you get all the help you need to dominate your fantasy draft, but you will also be entered to win a Noah Syndergaard autographed baseball, complete with “Thor” inscription! ***

Make sure to check out our 2017 Rankings:

Standard League
OBP League
Catcher 01/09/17 02/28/17
First Base 01/16/17 03/07/17
Second Base 01/23/17 03/09/17
Third Base 02/06/17
Shortstop 02/13/17
Outfield #1-20 |02/20/17

#21-40 |02/22/17

Starting Pitcher #1-20 |02/27/17

#21-40 |03/02/17

Relief Pitcher 01/02/17


We encourage you to Share our Reports, Analyses, Breaking News and Videos. Simply Click your Favorite Social Media Button and Share.

Report abuse


Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories



Top Global

Top Alternative




Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.