10 Important Stories From 04/22/17 Box Scores: Selling Snell, Outlook For Cotton/Lynn & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

After having his start pushed back due to a neck issue Jacob deGrom struggled with his control against the Nationals (5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 6 BB, 10 K).  Carlos Carrasco gave an ace performance against the White Sox, firing 8.0 shutout innings while allowing 3 H and 1 BB, striking out 8.  Antonio Senzatela posted another impressive outing (7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K) to beat the Giants.

1) Jason Heyward homers for second straight game…
He finished the day going 2-4 with 1 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R (you could argue that he was the second star to Willson Contreras, who went 3-4 with 1 HR, 4 RBI and 3 R).  Heyward is now hitting .300 with 2 HR and 10 RBI on the season, which would give a sense of hope for him.  At the same time he entered the day with a 25.5% Hard%, 48.9% groundball rate and 21.4% popup rate, none of which indicates a significant amount of power.  Couple that with the lack of SB in recent seasons and the fact that he’s actually struggling to draw walks (5.0% walk rate entering the day) and any optimism should be kept in check.  Sure there’s a chance he’s finally put things together, but selling high based on the name (if you can) makes sense.

2) A strong performance from Jharel Cotton…  Sort of…
His line against the Mariners was solid, allowing 2 ER on 6 H and 2 BB, striking out 2, over 6.0 IP.  On the surface that seems fine, but there are some numbers that would give cause for concern:

• Swinging Strikes – 5
• Groundballs vs. Flyballs – 6-to-9

Groundballs were an issue for Cotton in the minors as well (0.96 GO/AO), and the home run he allowed yesterday is likely the first of many in ’17.  Prior to this one he had been getting swings and misses (10.1% SwStr%), so hopefully this can be chalked up as more of an aberration than anything.  Still, considering the home run risk it’s something to continue watching.

3) Gio Gonzalez shines against the Mets…
He went 6.1 innings allowing 1 ER on 2 H and 3 BB, striking out 6, to earn the W.  He now owns a 1.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his first four starts (26.2 IP) with 21 K vs. 8 BB.  Of course there is a fair concern if he can maintain his current control, he entered the day with an unsustainable 89.6% strand rate (73.0% for his career) and his swinging strike rate has been unimpressive (9.0% entering the day, 9 swinging strikes yesterday).  While it’s obviously been a strong start to the season for Gonzalez, who has often tantalized us with some upside, it’s hard to believe that he’ll maintain this type of stuff.

4) Snell struggles with his control…
This shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but for the second time in ’17 the Rays’ Blake Snell walked 5 batters in an appearance.  He finished allowing 3 ER on 3 H and 5 BB, striking out 4, over 5.0 IP.  He’s now walked 15 batters in 21.1 IP over his first four starts, after posting a 5.16 BB/9 over 19 starts in the Majors last season (4.00 at Triple-A prior to his recall).  Control has always been the biggest question facing him, though he also hasn’t posted enough groundballs (6 vs. 5 fly balls yesterday) and hasn’t been showing impressive strikeout stuff (8.9% SwStr% entering the day, 7 swinging strikes last night).  Pitching in the AL East that package represents a recipe for disaster.  It’s not to say that there isn’t upside, but he needs to make some adjustments before he fulfills it.  We’ll have to dive deeper into him in the future, but would it be surprising to see him spend time at Triple-A this season to figure it out?

5) The Aaron Altherr hit parade continues…
He went 2-4 with 1 R and 1 SB yesterday, giving him three-straight multi-hit games (and a six-game hitting streak overall, going 9-21 with 3 RBI, 7 R and 2 SB.  We’ve often been teased by the upside of Altherr, with him being a much-hyped sleeper prior to ’16.  Injuries helped to derail him and this season he appeared to be the odd man out in an outfield rich with prospects, though at least for the short-term he appears to have forced his way into the lineup.  He’s not going to continue at this pace, but he has always shown power and speed, the problem last season was a bloated 30.4% strikeout rate.  It’s a miniscule sample so we don’t want to read into it (he only has 29 AB on the season), but he’s shown a better command of the strike zone.  If he can continue it moving forward he’s going to continue to see playing time.  He’s not this good, but in five-outfielder formats he’s worth the short-term gamble.

6) Has Lance Lynn figured it out…
The Brewers offense is underrated, but they were no match for Lynn last night as he allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 2 BB, striking out 7, over 6.0 IP to outlast the resurgent Chase Anderson (6.0 IP, 1 R, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K).  After struggling with his control and getting pummeled for 3 HR in his second start of the season, Lynn has now posted back-to-back strong starts (1 ER on 6 H and 3 BB over 13.0 IP).  It would be easy to dub him as “back” after missing ’16 and jump on the bandwagon, and his spike in strikeouts yesterday (17 swinging strikes after entering the day with a 6.75 K/9) is promising.  It did come against a strikeout prone team, but if he continues on this path he has the stuff to be a must use option.  Grabbing him off waivers now makes sense.

7) Another poor start from Matt Moore…
The easy answer would be that this outing came in Coors Field, as he allowed 6 ER on 9 H (including 3 HR) and 1 BB over 4.0 IP.  But what about his previous start, which came against Colorado in San Francisco, when he allowed 5 ER on 10 H over 5.2 IP?  How about his first start of the season in Arizona when he allowed 6 R (3 ER) on 8 H over 5.1 IP?  His control hasn’t been the issue, with 6 BB over 23.0 IP, but he is being hurt by home runs (5) and he isn’t striking many batters out (17).  The latter is a surprise and something we’d expect him to fix, but until then he’s nothing more than a streaming option when the situation is right.

8) Is it time to give up on Kenta Maeda…
Taking on the Diamondbacks in Arizona Maeda was pummeled for 4 HR, as he finished allowing 6 ER on 9 H and 1 BB, striking out 5, over 5.0 IP.  He’s now allowed 4+ ER in three straight starts (3+ in all four of his starts) and at least 1 HR in each outing (7 HR total).  While he’s given up far too many fly balls (53.4%), that’s not what he did last season (35.7%) and he should see an improvement.  He also should improve upon his 62.5% strand rate and his strikeouts/control have been fine (9.00 K/9, 2.37 BB/9).  Don’t lose hope and if you don’t own him, kick the tires and find out the price tag.  Buying low makes sense.

9) Dan Straily brings the strikeouts…
Taking on the Padres he struck out 14 batters over 7.0 IP, though he had to settle for a no decision as he allowed 2 ER on 7 H and 0 BB (he made one big mistake, a home run to Austin Hedges).  Straily has never been known for his strikeout stuff (7.68 K/9 for his career), nor does he have pinpoint control (3.56 BB/9 for his career) or bring significant groundball stuff (40.4% in ’17).  It was an impressive outing and it will likely send people running to the waiver wire, but in most cases he’s not a strong option.

10) Has Andrelton Simmons figured something out…
He went 2-4 with 1 HR, 4 RBI and 1 R, and is now hitting .288 with 3 HR and 2 SB on the season.  He now has multi-hit games in three of his past five games, and while it would be easy to get excited he only has 1 double and continues to pound the ball into the ground (51.8%).  Throw in never stealing more than 10 bases in a season and it’s easy to write him off.  They are nice numbers but for now he should continue to be viewed as a defensive specialist and nothing more.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs, MILB.com

Make sure to check out our Preseason 2017 Prospect Rankings: