The Ditch List: Has The Time Come To Ditch Jharel Cotton

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There were high hopes for the A’s Jharel Cotton entering the season, after he posted a 2.15 ERA over five starts late in ’16.  However his first five starts of 2017 have been a complete 180, as he’s limped to a 5.00 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.  The obvious question facing fantasy owners is if he’ll be able to turn things around or if the time has come to move on.

The easy answer would be that a turnaround is possible, considering the luck metrics:

• BABIP – .333
• Strand Rate – 61.0%

However, things are never quite that easy.  Simply looking at those numbers cause you to overlook some significant flaws that he’s shown.

Thus far he isn’t striking out many batters (6.33 K/9) and he’s walking far too many (4.00 BB/9).  He owns minor league career marks of 10.0 and 2.6, so there is reason to believe in an improvement.  However it’s obvious that Major League hitters have taken a different approach to him compared to what they did last season:

He’s throwing his sinker more than he did during his debut (22.73% vs. 7.97%), and it’s not getting results (.316 BAA, .474 SLG).  Throw in an overall 39.1% groundball rate and the pitches effectiveness isn’t there.  He also is throwing it about a mph slower than his fourseam fastball (92.98 mph) and while it’s not a huge difference could the slower velocity be hurting the effectiveness of his changeup?

That’s among the biggest questions, and you have to wonder if the change is in response to the potential home run issues he faces.  Just look at what Rich Wilson from Prospect 361 said prior to the season:

“The fly-in-the-ointment is his size.  At 5-foot-11 he lacks the plane on his pitches and this has made him homer-prone.  It really showed in 2016 as he faced more advanced hitters.  It’s what ultimately will suppress his ceiling and why he eventually could be moved to the bullpen.”

That hasn’t been an issue yet this season, but an ineffective sinker doesn’t eliminate it.  It’s something to watch and could ultimately keep his value suppressed.

Is there upside, if he can adjust?  Absolutely, and it’s why we wouldn’t be so quick to drop him.  At the same time he’s hardly a must hold given the questions, especially for those in shallower formats, as there is obviously significant risk.

Waiver Wire Guidelines:

• 10 Team Leagues – Droppable
• 12 Team Leagues – Droppable, but stash If possible
• 14+ Team Leagues – Worth stashing
• AL-Only Leagues – Worth stashing
• Keeper Leagues – Worth stashing

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Reference, Prospect 361

Make sure to check out our Preseason 2017 Prospect Rankings: