10 Important Stories From 05/02/17 Box Scores: Giving Up On Harvey, Don’t Sell Judge & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Chris Sale continued to star in Boston, allowing 2 ER on 3 H and 2 BB, striking out 11, over 8.0 IP to defeat the Orioles.  Miguel Cabrera returned from the DL to go 1-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R, which should help the lineup though his return bumped Tyler Collins (0-4 with 2 K) down to the sixth spot in the lineup.  Sonny Gray was beat up by the Twins in his first start of the season, allowing 4 ER on 5 H and 2 BB, striking out 4, over 6.0 IP as he coughed up 3 HR (the Twins hit 6 on the day).  Throw in some other big performances at the plate, including Jay Bruce (2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R) and Brett Gardner (3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R) and there’s a lot to talk about.  Let’s take a look at the most important stories from yesterday’s action:

1) Just how real is Aaron Judge’s start…
He went 2-3 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 3 R, putting him at .313 with 12 HR and 25 RBI.  We all knew about his power potential, but it’s fair to wonder how real this type of performance is.  He entered the day with a 50.0% HR/FB, and while he likely will see his fly ball rate rise (36.4%) no one can maintain this type of pace.  The bigger question is in his average, where he’s posted a reasonable .313 BABIP and 26.6% strikeout rate.  He has made a tremendous stride in not chasing pitches outside the strike zone (23.8%, compared to 33.6% in ’16) as well as cut down on his swings and misses (11.5% vs. 18.1%).  Is he going to slow down and regress?  It’s inevitable, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to completely collapse either.

2) Taijuan Walker struggles in Washington…
It was a fight from the opening pitch, needing 117 pitches to get through 4.2 IP (and failing to go 5.0 innings ultimately cost him a W).  Things could’ve been worse, especially given the opponent, as he finished allowing 3 ER on 5 H and 5 BB, striking out 6, which actually says a lot.  He entered the day with a 43.9% groundball rate and 0.91 HR/9, and with home runs being the biggest issue in the past he continued keeping the ball in the ballpark (6 groundballs vs. 2 fly balls, 0 HR allowed).  There are going to be days like this, but overall he’s shown strikeouts and control (39 K vs. 12 BB) and as long as he keeps the ball in the ballpark he’s going to be a solid option all season long.

3) Is there any reason to buy into Tyler Glasnow…
He got the W against the Reds, allowing 3 ER on 4 H and 4 BB, striking out 5, over 6.0 IP to earn his first win of the season.  Of course he also owns a 6.97 ERA and 2.13 WHIP, as he’s struggled mightily with his control (4 BB or more in three of his five starts).  Considering his 5.01 BB/9 over his 23.1 IP last season it’s a serious concern, and something that will ultimately lead to a return to Triple-A.  He did at least show some more swing and miss (13 swinging strikes, having entered the day with a 7.1% SwStr%), but that’s not enough.  Until he consistently finds the strike zone he isn’t going to be worth the investment.

4) Alex Cobb delivers in Miami…
It’s easy to forget about the upside of Cobb, especially after he got off to a slow start to ’17 (after missing all of ’15 and posting an 8.59 ERA in his five starts last season).  He showed us what he’s capable of yesterday, though, tossing 6.0 shutout innings allowing 4 H and 2 BB, striking out 2.  The big issue is the lack of strikeouts (4 K or fewer in four of his six starts), as he entered the day with a 6.52 K/9 and managed just 6 swinging strikes yesterday (8.5% SwStr% entering the day).  He has shown control and groundballs, and we know he has the potential to rack up more strikeouts (and his velocity appears back, averaging 91.3 mph on his fastball).  While there is some risk, there’s more than enough upside to buy in.

5) Is there any hope left for Matt Harvey…
While he could make the excuse that he was pushed up, due to injuries, in his previous two starts, what was his excuse last night?  The Mets needed an ace, and instead he allowed 6 ER on 8 H and 3 BB, striking out 2, over 5.1 IP to the Braves (the biggest blow came from Freddie Freeman, who went 1-2 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R).  As it is he entered the day having benefitted from a .209 BABIP and the strikeout stuff just hasn’t been there (7.5% SwStr%, 8 swinging strikes yesterday).  With his fastball velocity down early on (93.8 mph entering the day), it’s starting to be fair to wonder if he will ever return to the pitcher he once was.  At this point he’s hardly a buy low starter to target.

6) Javier Baez delivers a monster game…
He went 4-4 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R (he was a double short of the cycle), his second straight game with a home run and puts him at .269 with 3 HR and 9 RBI on the season.  One of the biggest questions has been where the playing time will come from, and while Kris Bryant did leave with a calf injury expectations are that it’s not going to cost him much time.  Outside of that, Baez has also continued to struggle with his plate discipline, with 21 K vs. 4 BB over 67 AB.  While there is upside, until he cuts down on the strikeouts and finds regular playing time he’s not going to be much of an option.

7) Has Byron Buxton started to turn things around…
He had plenty of help in the offense yesterday, including Brian Dozier (2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R) and Miguel Sano (1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R), but fantasy owners shouldn’t ignore the turn around Buxton has shown.  He went 1-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R yesterday.  After bottoming out at .082 on April 20, he’s gone 7-23 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 6 R and 2 SB over his past eight games.  More important is his improved approach, with 6 K vs. 7 BB over this stretch.  While it doesn’t seem like much, it’s important not to overlook given his upside potential.  He’s worth stashing to see if he can continue to build on this.

8) Does Marwin Gonzalez deserve our attention…
He went 2-3 with 2 HR, 5 RBI and 2 R yesterday, giving him 3 HR in his past two games and 4 HR in his past four (over his past five games he’s gone 7-15 with 4 HR, 11 RBI and 4 R).  He doesn’t play regularly and considering that he opened the day with a 38.5% HR/FB it’s hard to imagine him continuing to be this productive.  It’s been a great stretch, but it’s not one to get overly excited about.

9) Another productive day from Cody Bellinger…
The Dodgers gave Alex Wood (5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K, W) plenty of support, as they racked up 13 R against Matt Moore (3.1 IP, 9 ER) and the Giants.  Bellinger, who made his first start at 1B and hit eighth, was in the middle of the action going 2-4 with 3 RBI and 2 R.  He’s now hitting .345 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in the Majors, and while the talk has been that he’s going to be demoted shortly that isn’t necessarily the case.  Adrian Gonzalez is banged up, and with the way Bellinger is playing they could decide giving him a DL stint would be the best course of action.  They also should be able to find enough AB in LF, considering the mish mosh of players they are running out there.  The moral of the story is that if someone is hitting teams will find a spot for them, and Bellinger is hitting.  Don’t make the mistake of dropping him.

10) What went wrong for Danny Duffy…
The White Sox took it to him yesterday, as he allowed 6 ER on 10 H and 2 BB, striking out 3, over 5.0 IP.  He’s now allowed 12 ER over 9.2 IP in his past two starts, giving up 19 H and 4 BB while striking out just 5 (both starts coming against Chicago).  While he got off to a strong start, this has obviously been an ugly turn.  Still, while the strikeouts have been there he has been generating swings and misses (12 swinging strikes yesterday) and he was also generating groundballs (9 vs. 2 fly balls).  At the end of the day this has been a rough stretch, but there’s still plenty of upside.  He looks to be a strong buy low candidate if you can get him.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs

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