10 Important Stories From 05/22/17 Box Scores: Travis Breaking Out, Musgrove’s Limited Upside & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

While he took the loss, Chris Archer had the strikeout pitch working as he whiffed 12 Yankees over 6.1 IP (he allowed 3 ER on 6 H and 2 BB).  Stephen Strasburg pitched like an ace, allowing 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB, striking out 11, over 7.2 IP.  Kris Bryant helped to buoy the Cubs’ offense, going 3-3 with 2 HR, 2 RBI and 4 R.  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s take a look:

1) C.J. Cron gets on the board…
While he has missed time due to injury, it was still frustrating to see Cron enter play yesterday without a home run.  He quickly changed that yesterday, launching a grand slam off of Tommy Milone, as he finished the day going 1-4 with 1 HR, 4 RBI and 1 R.  While it doesn’t eliminate any frustration, he is on a four-game hitting streak and now has his average up to .232.  There is plenty of more room for growth, as he entered the day with a 24.6% line drive rate (.295 BABIP), 20.9% strikeout rate (9.5% SwStr%, which would be a career best) and plenty of power in his bat.  Hopefully this is just the start of a hot stretch, but he’s definitely worth owning in all formats.

2) Devon Travis showing off his upside potential…
He went 2-4 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 1 R yesterday, giving him a seven-game hitting streak (15-28 with 1 HR, 8 RBI and 3 R).  Just to make it even more impressive, he’s posted seven multi-hit games over the streak.  No one has ever questioned his ability, the problem has always been staying healthy.  There’s every reason to believe he’s going to continue to produce, as he entered the day showing a good command of the strike zone (7.6% SwStr%), has been hitting the ball hard (23.6% line drive rate) and also should continue to see his power improve (2.7% HR/FB).  With this streak the opportunity to buy low has likely come and gone, but he’s certainly worth owning.

3) Aaron Nola impresses in return from DL…
Taking on the Pirates he took a hard luck loss, allowing 1 ER on 4 H and 2 BB, striking out 5, over 7.0 IP.  He also generating more than enough groundballs, with 10 vs. 6 fly balls.  He didn’t have a swing and miss pitch working (7 swinging strikes), but prior to landing on the DL he had a 12.7% SwStr% (15 K over 16.0 IP) so it is hardly a concern.  A popular breakout candidate prior to the season, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to produce strong stats immediately.  Get him back active in all formats.

4) Joe Musgrove takes it on the chin…
While his opponent, Danny Salazar, should a little bit of promise (5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K), there are no positives that can be taken from Musgrove’s performance.  Lasting just 3.0 innings he allowed 7 ER on 8 H and 3 BB, striking out 4, with the big blow coming off the bat of Yan Gomes (2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 R).  While Musgrove has shown plenty of promise, he hasn’t been generating nearly enough strikeouts (6.85 K/9 entering the day) and he’s been homer prone ever since arriving in the Majors (1.45 HR/9, before Gomes’ blast).  Those two things are going to limit his appeal and force him to be more of a matchup play, as opposed to a starter we can plug in and trust on a weekly basis.

5) It was a strong outing from Jake Arrieta…
He shut down the Brewers, allowing 1 R (0 earned) on 5 H and 1 BB, striking out 6, over 6.0 IP.  He was given ample support, and we can’t simply overlook the concerns that we had prior to this outing.  One start doesn’t right the significant regression in groundballs (40.2% entering the day, and he had just 6 groundballs vs. 6 fly balls yesterday).  One start doesn’t eliminate the velocity concerns we had.  Things should get better, so it’s not a surprise, but we also can’t simply dub him “back” off this outing alone.  It’s going to take more than one start to fully make us believe.

6) Tim Anderson has a strong day at the plate…
He finished going 3-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 2 R, his second straight multi-hit game (5-9 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 4 R).  More important may be that he has not struck out in these games, though he also hasn’t drawn a walk.  We all knew that plate discipline was going to be the biggest question facing him, and entering the day with a 13.8% SwStr% and 38.3% O-Swing% hasn’t helped to change that.  He does have some power and some speed, though he’s also appeared to be trying to hit for more power this season (his fly ball rate has gone from 24.9% to 36.1%) and that’s likely to have a further negative impact on his average.  While there’s potential, in redraft formats the value in ’17 isn’t all that promising.

7) Clayton Richard goes the distance…
He outpitched Zack Godley (7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K) as he tossed a complete game en route to a victory.  He allowed just 1 R on 5 H and 0 BB, striking out 6, to improve to 3-5 with a 4.31 ERA.  While he’s had some solid start this season, it’s been about a 50/50 proposition as he’s allowed 4+ ER in five of his ten starts.  He has limited strikeout upside (6.54 K/9 entering the day), but solid control and the ability to generate groundballs makes him an ideal streaming option (especially when starting at home).  This one game doesn’t change that outlook.

8) Has Eduardo Rodriguez finally figured it out…
Taking on the A’s he allowed 3 ER on 6 H and 1 BB, striking out 8, over 8.0 IP.  He made one mistake, a home run to Chad Pinder (2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R), but otherwise was solid.  He now owns a 3.10 ERA and has shown solid strikeout stuff (63 K over 57.1 IP, courtesy of a 13.2% SwStr% entering the day).  Of course his control isn’t great, he’s not a groundball pitcher (36.0% entering the day, and he had just 1 groundball vs. 15 fly balls yesterday) and you also can argue that he benefited from a fair amount of luck (.268 BABIP, 20.0% line drive rate entering the day).  Those three things shed a bit of an ominous light on his outlook, with the potential for a significant regression.  There’s appeal, but it’s hard to fully buy in giving the potential land mines facing him.

9) Salvador Perez enjoys a monster double header…
He played both games, one as the catcher and one as the DH, and produced some gaudy numbers.  Across the two games he combined to go 3-8, 3 HR, 5 RBI and 3 R.  He’s now hitting .280 with 11 HR and 28 RBI on the season, though his fly balls continue to rise (51.8% entering the day) and his swinging strikes remain elevated (10.1% SwStr%, as well as a 43.5% O-Swing%).  Those two things could combine to lead to a significant regression in his average, which is something to keep in mind.  The power is nice, but now may actually be the opportune time to try and sell high.

10) Has the time come to give up on Matt Boyd…
Taking on the Texas Rangers Boyd struggled, allowing 4 ER on 12 H and 0 BB, striking out 3, over 5.1 IP.  He’s now been pummeled to the tune of 11 ER on 20 H over his past two starts (7.2 IP).  He had been pitching better prior to this rough start (3.89 ERA), but with an unsightly 5.36 ERA and 1.68 WHIP it is hard to currently buy in.  His control has been bad (4.54 BB/9 entering the day), he’s not picking up enough strikeouts (8.6% SwStr%, 8 swinging strikes yesterday) and he’s not an elite groundball pitcher (42.2% entering the day).  In other words, while there is upside it’s impossible to even consider using him right now.  While you can stash him in deeper formats, for most it’s safe to move on.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs

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