10 Important Stories From 05/29/17 Box Scores: Why Bundy & Teheran Are Sell Candidates & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

On the day we learned Mike Trout could miss the next 6-8 weeks due to a torn ligament in his thumb, there were a pair of notable DL returns.  David Price pitched well in his first start off the DL, though settled for a no decision, as he allowed 3 ER on 2 H and 2 BB, striking out 4, over 5.0 IP (88 pitches).  After missing the entire season, Adrian Beltre returned from the DL and was immediately slotted into the cleanup spot (he went 1-5).  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s take a look:

1) A strong start from Dylan Bundy doesn’t mean he’s worth buying…
Bundy allowed 2 ER on 7 H and 1 BB, striking out 3, over 7.0 innings to defeat the Yankees and improve to 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 71.2 IP.  You would think that those numbers would make him a strong option to use, but there are warning signs aplenty:

• Strikeouts – 6.40 K/9 entering the game (9 swinging strikes yesterday)
• Groundballs – 32.1% groundball rate (5 groundballs vs. 12 fly balls yesterday)
• Luck – .261 BABIP, 82.8% strand rate despite a 24.6% line drive rate

Sooner or later you have to think that the lack of groundballs will lead to significantly more home runs (0.97 HR/9 entering the day) and that the luck will eventually turn.  Ride the hot stretch while it’s going well, but don’t be afraid to sell high.

2) Maybe Alex Bregman is starting to warm up…
While the Astros had many offensive stars in a game where they racked up 16 R and 18 H (including an 11-run inning), the most notable performance likely came from the underperforming Bregman.  He finished the day going 2-5 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R.  While it’s not much, it was his second multi-hit game in his past five and this third home run in his past eight games.  While it’s easy to be frustrated by his performance overall, there is also plenty of reason for optimism.  He entered the day with a 23.7% line drive rate and plenty of room to improve on his strikeout rate (20.3 %, despite just a 7.7% SwStr%).  The power should also improve (6.4% HR/FB), giving more than enough reason to buy.  The opportunity to buy low is quickly closing, so make the move now before it’s too late.

3) Could one swing from Logan Forsythe finally get him going…
It’s been a disappointing season, due to injury and inability, but fantasy owners can hope that after hitting a home run yesterday (1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R) he can get himself on track.  There are definitely reason to believe, as he entered the day with a strong command of the strike zone (8.3% SwStr%, 13.5% O-Swing%) and also hitting the ball ridiculously hard (40.5% line drive rate).  Remember he’s the same player who hit 20 HR in ’16 (and 17 HR in ’15) while also showing additional extra base power (57 doubles and 6 triples between the two years).  This certainly could be the start of something.

4) Matt Moore solid again, though in defeat…
It was a tough matchup against the Nationals and he was certainly outpitched by Tanner Roark (7.0 IP, 0 R, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 L), though that doesn’t take away from Moore’s performance.  Going 7.0 innings he allowed 2 ER on 6 H and 0 BB, striking out 5.  It was a tough start for Moore, who saw his ERA hit 6.75, but he’s steadily reduced it over his past five starts (3 ER or fewer in each of them) to get it to 4.98.  His strikeouts have not been what we’d expected, with over 5 just twice in his 11 starts.  With just an 8.5% SwStr% (though he did have 13 swinging strikes yesterday) there isn’t much hope, and a lack of groundballs have led to home run troubles (1.55 HR/9).  Throw in questionable control and what exactly are we buying?  Unless he can improve his strikeouts significantly he’s going to be tough to trust.

5) Is Randall Delgado earning a permanent home in Arizona’s rotation…
While he had to settle for a no decision, he looked like he deserved a spot with yesterday’s outing as he allowed just 1 ER on 5 H and 0 BB, striking out 8, over 5.2 IP against the Pirates.  He generated an impressive 17 swinging strikes and while most of his time has been spent in the bullpen, he owns 35 K vs. 6 BB in 36.1 innings on the season.  Throw in a 48.4% groundball rate and there certainly is ample upside assuming he can carry his performance in a starting role.  It’ll be intriguing to watch, at least for now, but in deeper formats he’s a gamble worth stashing.

6) Ryon Healy continues to warm up at the plate…
He went 3-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 R, giving him hits and RBI in three straight games (6-11, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 R).  He’s now hitting .298 in May, to go along with 6 HR, 13 RBI and 12 R.  While it’s easy to argue that he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype overall, when you look at just his May numbers it’s certainly hard to complain.  He’s likely going to have some highs and lows throughout the season, and there’s reason to be concerned that he’s swinging for the fences (44.8% fly ball rate overall), but there also is value so don’t lose hope.

7) Has Robert Gsellman figured it out…
It seemed like he was on the verge of losing his rotation spot, and in fact did spend some time coming out of the bullpen (off days afforded the Mets the luxury of moving to a four-man rotation).  However he was strong yesterday allowing 2 R (1 earned) on 3 H and 2 BB, striking out 5, over 7.0 IP.  In two starts since returning to the rotation he’s allowed 4 ER on 9 H and 3 BB over 13.0 IP, going 1-0 in the process.  He’s clearly had some bad luck overall (he entered the day with a .355 BABIP and 56.3% strand rate), and has done a good job generating groundballs (54.5% entering the day, 12 groundballs vs. 4 fly balls yesterday).  Throw in a little more upside in the strikeout department and there’s reason to believe that he can continue to string together some solid starts.

8) Whit Merrifield’s impressive start continued…
It really does feel like 2016 all over again, doesn’t it?  He went 3-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 3 R yesterday, giving him a 14-game hitting streak and putting him at .314 with 4 HR and 4 SB over the month of May.  Just as he did last year when first promoted he has hit the ground running, making it look like it will be impossible for him to be replaced from the starting role.  Obviously he could, as they proved a year ago, but there’s nothing unrealistic in his underlying metrics (like his .287 BABIP or 13.9% HR/FB entering the day).  While he’s hardly a must own option, but certainly ride the streak while he’s going well.

9) Troy Tulowitzki helps to lead the Blue Jays’ offensive explosion…
They racked up 17 R on 23 H and 7 BB against a trio of Cincinnati pitchers, so there was obviously a lot of offensive stars.  Justin Smoak, for instance, continued his impressive start (3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 R) and Devon Travis had another big day (4-6, 2 RBI, 1 R).  However Tulowitzki, who recently came off the DL, may be the most important as he went 2-5 with 1 HR, 4 RBI and 1 R.  While he did miss a good chunk of time, Tulowitzki actually hasn’t struck out since April 14, with 6 K vs. 5 BB over 68 AB (19 games) on the season.  He’s not the player that he once was, but he should easily improve upon his 13.8% line drive rate (19.5% for his career) and 4.5% HR/FB (15.0% for his career).  Now is the time to buy.

10) Julio Teheran gets the win, but there’s a big question…
Taking on the Angels he allowed 3 ER on 6 H and 1 BB, striking out 5, over 6.1 IP.  It’s a solid outing, but all three runs came courtesy of solo home runs, the second time in his past three starts that he’s allowed 3 HR in a game (7 total HR in this stretch, 12 HR over 61.2 IP on the season).  He’s never been much of a groundball pitcher, and he entered the day with a 34.5% groundball rate (1.46 HR/FB).  Considering how hitter friendly Atlanta’s new home ballpark appears to be, it’s obviously a significant concern (as it is, yesterday’s performance came on the road).  With the SwStr% (8.6%, only 6 swinging strikes yesterday) also down, leading to a drop in strikeouts, now may be the time to sell high before the issues fully present themselves.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs

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