Buy Low Candidates: Are There Any Struggling Hitters Worth Buying (Bregman & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

While we all want to find the next big thing and grab the player no one else is looking towards, but sometimes getting the struggling known commodity is the better course of action.  Buying low and then enjoying the impending rebound can help to propel a team to victory, and after the first month of the season there are many players off to slow starts.  While they aren’t all strong buys, let’s take a look at a few names and determine if we should be buying or not:

Alex Bregman – Houston Astros – Third Baseman
Now that Anthony Rendon enjoyed his breakout performance, one of the players I’m asked about most often is Bregman.  Considering his early season struggles and the depth at third base it would be easy say cut bait and move on.  However, after enduring his poor April performance (.250, 0 HR, 6 RBI) moving on now would simply mean that you aren’t going to benefit from the rebound.

Over the first month of the season he has actually shown an improved command of the strike zone from ’16, though his batted ball profile has changed:

The drop in fly balls isn’t the big concern, as he’s not going to be a 30 HR hitter regardless (think somewhere in the 18-24 HR range, which still is possible).  It’s the drop in line drives that’s the concern, and maybe seeing fewer fastballs (65.34% to 56.91%) and more breaking balls and offspeed pitches is the reason why.  It’s an adjustment he’ll need to make, and something that should be possible.

There’s going to be some power, and with his improved command of the strike zone the upside remains.  Don’t make the mistake of giving up on him too soon.

Verdict – Buy ‘Em

Victor Martinez – Detroit Tigers – Designated Hitter
While no one should’ve expected him to match last season’s 27 HR campaign, he’s better than the 1 HR he’s shown thus far…  Or is he?  While he posted a 14.8% HR/FB last season that hasn’t necessarily been the story since arriving in Detroit:

• 2011 – 7.3%
• 2013 – 7.2%
• 2014 – 16.0%
• 2015 – 7.2%
• 2016 – 14.8%
• 2017 – 3.6%

While that does indicate an improvement is coming, it’s possible it’s not a significant one (10-14 HR wouldn’t be an unreasonable expectation).  That’s going to impact his average, and at his age and with his lack of speed carrying an elevated BABIP is hardly a given (currently at .273).  While he has a good command of the strike zone, his strikeout rate remains elevated from what he’s done in past seasons (14.9%, compared to a 10.8% career mark).  In other words there’s more risk than potential reward at this point.

Verdict – Deny ‘Em

Kyle Seager – Seattle Mariners – Third Baseman
Having emerged as one of the better options in the league over the past few seasons, it’s been a disappointing start to 2017 as he’s hit .253 with 1 HR.  Of course he has still picked up 15 RBI while showing a strong command of the strike zone (7.3% SwStr%, 24.4% O-Swing%).  In fact his BABIP of .300 isn’t unreasonable, and the sole issue has been the lack of power (more home runs would help to elevate his average).  He’s shown a better HR/FB throughout his career, but particularly over the past three seasons:

• 2014 – 12.9%
• 2015 – 12.1%
• 2016 – 14.6%
• 2017 – 4.0%

Slow months happen, and there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to have a significant breakout.  If you can buy him, do it now.

Verdict – Buy ‘Em

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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